2025-06-16-花旗集团-StarPower（603290）_斯达半导（603290.SS）_模型更新_14页_616kb

Citi's Analysis: Citigroup maintains a Neutral rating on StarPower (603290.SS) due to ongoing IGBT pricing pressures from intensified industry competition and key customers shifting internal sourcing. New competitors are emerging, and demand is shifting toward SiC MOSFET, further reducing IGBT demand. Despite this, StarPower is investing in SiC offerings.

Financial Forecasts: Citi projects net profit growth of 23% in 2025E and 29% in 2026E. The current valuation appears justified, with a target price of Rmb80 (up to 27x 12-month forward P/E). Expected dividend yield is 1.0%, with a stable payout ratio.

Industry Dynamics: IGBT price deterioration continues due to supply-demand imbalances, and while supply localization supports growth, profitability is pressured. SiC investments face price declines as industry supply expands. Upside catalysts include IGBT demand recovery from EV and renewable markets, while risks involve slowing EV sales, inventory corrections, and further SiC transitions.

Valuation and View: Target price unchanged at Rmb80, based on conservative assumptions. Neutral stance persists due to persistent competitive pressures and valuation downcycle. Citi recommends monitoring industry dynamics.