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The Cannabis Index Summary: Where Will Legalisation Move Next?

Core Content

The Euromonitor International Cannabis Index provides an analysis of the global legal cannabis industry, highlighting the current and future regulatory landscape in 100 major consumer markets. The report focuses on the top 15 markets, identifying key indicators such as 'sinfulness', socio-demographics, and legal status to evaluate the attractiveness of each market for the cannabis industry.

Main Viewpoints

• Global Legalisation Trends: The legal cannabis industry is expected to grow significantly, with global legal sales projected to rise from USD12 billion in 2018 to USD166 billion by 2025. This growth is driven by the expansion of legalisation across countries, product types, and consumer profiles.

• Legalisation Index Framework: The index evaluates markets using three key factors:

  • Sinfulness: Combines cannabis use with tobacco and alcohol consumption.
  • Socio-demographics: Includes population size and disposable income levels.
  • Legal Status: Refers to the timeline for legalisation or decriminalisation of medical and recreational cannabis.

• Market Attractiveness: Markets are ranked into ten deciles based on their scores. The top decile receives the highest score for each segment, with the final score being a combination of these metrics.

Key Information: Top 15 Markets

Note: Segment specific rank in brackets.

Market Analysis

• Canada: Leads the index due to its full legalisation of recreational cannabis in 2018. It has a sophisticated corporate framework and is a leader in the global industry. However, its market size and regulatory framework may limit future growth.

• USA: Offers a large consumer base and high disposable income, making it a highly attractive market. Legalisation is expected within five years, but federal policy remains fragmented, creating uncertainty for investors.

• Italy: Despite illegal recreational cannabis, it has a large adult population and is expanding its medical cannabis system. Full legalisation is anticipated in the next two to three years, with opportunities for low-THC products and international supply chain entry.

• Uruguay: A pioneer in legalising cannabis for adult use since 2013, it is expected to lose significance as global legalisation progresses. It may export cannabis products and regulatory models to other markets.

• Germany: A relatively new market with potential for becoming a major adult-use market. Medical cannabis is already established, and legalisation is expected within five years. The country's focus on natural remedies and the normalization of cannabis could drive growth.

Regulatory Choices and Trends

• Regulatory Models: Newly legalising countries may adopt models similar to existing legal markets, influenced by geographic proximity, regulatory attitudes towards adjacent sectors (like tobacco), and the level of government involvement in the economy.

• Taxation: Tax revenue from cannabis is a key driver for legalisation. Governments aim to set excise rates that maximise revenue without encouraging illegal purchases.

• Future of Regulation: The distinction between medicinal and recreational cannabis will likely fade, leading to a broader product landscape. Cannabis will be used in food, beverages, and beauty products, while also being positioned as a wellness product for non-clinical health issues.

Societal Tolerance

• As legalisation expands, societal tolerance for cannabis use is expected to increase, similar to alcohol. However, initial regulations may focus on issues like driving under the influence and cannabis use in the workplace.

• Public spaces and shared consumption may see reduced restrictions as acceptance grows and delivery formats diversify.

Conclusion

• Legalisation of cannabis is gaining momentum globally, driven by consumer support and the potential for economic benefits.
• The Americas and Europe will dominate the legal cannabis industry in the short to medium term, but legalisation is becoming a universal trend.
• The regulatory and market landscape will continue to evolve, with a focus on balancing control, innovation, and public health concerns.