20160414-USDA-USDA_Rice_Outlook_2016.4.14_24页_763kb

Summary of the 2016/17 U.S. Rice Outlook

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the U.S. rice market and global rice production and consumption trends for the 2015/16 and 2016/17 market years. It includes updates on plantings, stocks, prices, and trade forecasts, as well as revisions to global production and consumption estimates.

U.S. 2016/17 Rice Plantings

• Total Plantings: Indicated at 3.06 million acres, a 17% increase from the previous year, the highest since 2010/11.
• Region Breakdown:
  • Long-grain (grown almost exclusively in the South) accounts for all of the area expansion.
  • Arkansas is the leading contributor to the expansion, with 2.45 million acres planted, up 31% from a year earlier.
  • Louisiana increased its plantings by 5% to 440,000 acres, with long-grain accounting for all of the increase.
  • Mississippi and Missouri also showed growth, with 47% and 14% increases respectively.
  • California remained at 420,000 acres, a 1% increase from the previous year.
• Planting Pace: As of April 10, the planting pace for the 2016/17 crop was 9 percentage points ahead of the previous year and 6 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average.
• Emergence: By April 10, 12% of the U.S. rice crop had emerged, 5 percentage points ahead of the previous year and 3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Louisiana and Texas had the fastest emergence rates.

U.S. 2015/16 Supply and Trade

• Import Forecast: Reduced by 0.5 million cwt to 23.5 million cwt, a 5% decline from the previous year.
• Long-grain Imports: Down 0.5 million cwt to 20.0 million cwt, with Thailand, India, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Brazil as the main suppliers.
• Medium- and Short-grain Imports: Remained unchanged at 3.5 million cwt.
• Exports:
  • Total Exports: Projected at 100.0 million cwt, nearly unchanged from the previous year.
  • Long-grain Exports: Forecast at 69.0 million cwt, down 2.5% from the previous year.
  • Medium- and Short-grain Exports: Forecast at 31.0 million cwt, up 5% from the previous year.
  • Commercial Shipments and Sales: Total 2.71 million tons as of March 31, 4% behind the previous year. Outstanding sales were 37% behind the previous year.
  • Key Markets: Exports to Japan, South Korea, and Central America were ahead of the previous year, while Turkey, Iraq, and Sub-Saharan Africa lagged.

U.S. Ending Stocks and Prices

• Ending Stocks: Forecast at 43.4 million cwt, a 0.5 million cwt reduction from the previous forecast and 11% below the previous year.
• Prices:
  • All-rice Season-Average Farm Price (SAFP): Projected at $12.30–$12.70 per cwt, a 10–50 cent decline from the previous month.
  • Long-grain SAFP: Forecast at $10.80–$11.20 per cwt, down 20–40 cents from the previous month.
  • Medium- and Short-grain SAFP: Forecast at $15.70–$16.30 per cwt, well below $18.30 from the previous year.
  • California medium- and short-grain prices dropped significantly, while Southern prices were lower than long-grain due to weak exports and increased planting area.

Global Production and Consumption Outlook

• Global Production: Forecast at 470.6 million tons, down 0.5 million tons from the previous month and 2% below the previous year, the smallest in 4 years.
• Production Revisions:
  • Downward Revisions: Brazil, Pakistan, Philippines, and Vietnam saw reductions due to smaller areas and lower yields.
  • Upward Revisions: Senegal and Sierra Leone experienced significant increases due to higher yields.
• Consumption and Residual: Forecast at 484.1 million tons, up 1.5 million tons from the previous year and the highest on record.
• Ending Stocks: Projected to decline 13% to 90.2 million cwt, marking the third consecutive year of decline.

Key Factors Influencing Trends

• Weather: El Niño contributed to droughts in several regions, reducing rice areas and yields.
• Currency and Dollar Strength: A stronger U.S. dollar and stronger currencies in Thailand and Vietnam influenced price trends.
• Trade Dynamics: Thailand remains the largest U.S. rice supplier, while India and Pakistan supplied more than expected in 2015/16.
• Supply and Demand Imbalance: Global consumption is expected to exceed production by 14 million tons, leading to lower ending stocks.

Conclusion

The U.S. rice market for 2016/17 shows a significant increase in plantings, driven by economic factors and weather recovery. However, prices and exports for medium- and short-grain rice remain challenged due to lower demand and competitive markets. Globally, production declines are dominated by Asia, with Thailand and Vietnam facing the largest reductions. Despite this, Sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia are expected to increase production. The global market continues to experience tight supply and demand balance, with ending stocks declining for the third year in a row.