20230821-兴证期货-工业硅周报_供需矛盾仍存_硅价区间震荡为主_11页_2mb

Industrial Silicon Market Summary

Market Review

The market review indicates that macroeconomic conditions have eased, while fundamentals remain stable. Industrial silicon futures in the main contract closed at 13,530 yuan/ton for the week, a 0.84% decline. Spot prices include: unrefined 553# at 13,300 yuan/ton, refined 553# at 13,600 yuan/ton, and 421# buying premium at 14,500 yuan/ton with cost advantages. Trading volumes were low in terms of price fluctuations, and the basis showed no major shifts.

Short-Term Outlook

Supply is expanding with Chinese production reaching about 7,190 tons last week, driven by increased furnaces (up five overall, with Sichuan contributing most). Demand side is mixed, with solar silicon prices holding steady and capacity growth expected, while organic silicon faces weak demand and potential downtime, and aluminum alloy use dropping due to seasonal consumption slowdown. Overall, supply-demand contradictions persist, fundamentals unchanged, favoring short-term range-bound price volatility.

Risk Factors

Key risks include falling production costs, uncertainties from downstream capacity additions, and ongoing concerns about terminal consumption slumping which could stem demand.