2022-04-19-世界银行-世界银行东亚与太平洋地区经济半年报_——直面重重风暴2022年春季（英）_100页_5mb

Summary of East Asia and the Pacific Economic Update (April 2022)

1. Overview
The East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region, which had been recovering from COVID-19, faces new challenges from external shocks, including the war in Ukraine and tighter US monetary policy. These risks threaten to lower 2022 growth from 5.4% to 5%, or as low as 4% under a low-case scenario. The region’s recovery is uneven, with some countries like China and Vietnam surpassing pre-pandemic levels, while others, particularly the Pacific Island Countries, lag behind. Poverty reduction efforts are jeopardized by rising food and energy prices.

Key Findings

• Economic Performance: COVID-19 containment through high vaccination rates has reduced restrictions, but the war and sanctions have disrupted supply chains and increased prices, impacting inflation and growth. Trade recovery remains uneven, with goods exports improving but services exports lagging, especially in tourism-dependent nations.
• New Risks: The war in Ukraine, US financial tightening, China’s economic slowdown, and regulatory changes have created supply chain disruptions and heightened vulnerabilities.
• Opportunities: Trade realignment away from China, digital technology adoption, and green energy investments offer potential for growth and resilience.
• Policy Priorities: Enhance fiscal efficiency, address inflation and financial vulnerabilities, reform trade policies to reduce barriers, and promote innovation through better targeting of social protection and fostering technological diffusion.

Concluding Recommendations
Countries must balance short-term stabilization with long-term growth goals. Strengthening fiscal rules, improving debt management, and investing in green and digital technologies are critical to navigating current challenges and capitalizing on emerging opportunities.