世界银行-2024年4月东亚及太平洋地区经济报告（英）-2024-118页_3mb

Firm Foundations of Growth: Major Findings and Policy Recommendations from the World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update (April 2024)

1. Key Economic Challenges

• Growth Trends: The East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region is growing faster than the rest of the world but slower than pre-pandemic levels. China's growth is projected to moderate to 4.5% in 2024 due to debt, property sector weakness, and structural factors. The rest of the region is expected to grow at 4.6% in 2024, supported by recovering global trade. Pacific Island Countries' growth is set to decline to 3.6% in 2024 as the post-pandemic rebound fades.
• Productivity Growth Slowdown: While aggregate growth has been driven by capital accumulation, productivity growth (particularly within firms) has slowed. Frontier firms (the most productive) in EAP lag behind their global counterparts, especially in digital sectors. For example, between 2005 and 2015, global frontier productivity in digital manufacturing rose by 76%, while national frontier firms in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Vietnam increased productivity by only 31%.
• Policy Uncertainty and External Factors: Rising trade protectionism, debt accumulation, and geopolitical tensions have constrained growth. External demand, particularly from China, remains crucial for many countries.

2. Policy Recommendations

• Spur Competition: Reforms to reduce market barriers (e.g., tariffs, non-tariff measures, and regulations) can enhance competition, driving frontier firms to innovate and grow. Services liberalization in Vietnam boosted labor productivity in its sectors and downstream manufacturing.
• Invest in Digital Infrastructure: Uneven access to high-speed broadband and digital skills hampers productivity, particularly for advanced technologies like data analytics. Policies should focus on expanding fiber broadband and improving digital public infrastructure.
• Enhance Human Capital: Improve foundational skills (e.g., basic literacy, digital literacy, and foundational learning), invest in tertiary education for advanced cognitive and technical skills, and strengthen management capabilities through targeted interventions.
• Foster Innovation: Link research institutions and firms to accelerate technology diffusion. Support policies should combine fostering competition with targeted measures (e.g., consulting, training) to boost firm capabilities.

Conclusion
The region's growth remains vulnerable to both external and domestic challenges. Revitalizing productivity through competition-enhancing policies, digital infrastructure investments, and human capital development is crucial for sustainable long-term growth, post-pandemic recovery, and adapting to a changing global landscape, including evolving geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions.