20240510-东亚期货-化工品周报—沥青_13页_5mb

报告摘要

Asphalten Research Weekly Report - May 10, 2024

Prepared by Xu Liang | Consultancy Code: Z0002220
Reviewed by Tang Yun | Code: Z0002422

Summary

This report outlines the key points of the asphalt market for the week, highlighting both price movements and fundamental market conditions. After the May Day holiday, domestic asphalt futures prices saw a drop on the opening, settling around the lower end of the 3600–3800 range due to a significant decline in overseas crude oil prices over the holiday period. The current spot prices in Shandong range from 3660–3740 yuan, with the lowest price having adjusted downward by approximately 50 yuan. The preliminary data for asphalt production and consumption for the first quarter showed a continued weakening of both supply and demand, indicating a bearish market. Inventory levels in both factory and social warehouses were minimally reduced but remained higher compared to the same period last year. Short-term outlook analysis does not present many catalysts for price movement; however, the repair of cracks related to crude oil is contributing some support. Overall, the fundamental factors remain weak.

Key Points

Supply:
- As of May 9, the domestic asphalt production capacity utilization rate stood slightly downward compared previously (~3%) facing slower production growth expectations ahead amid inventories and demand issues.
Demand:
- Monthly and annual demand data continue to show contraction. In 2024, apparent demand for asphalt reached approximately 258,000 tonnes for the month ending March recorded a ~9.8% year-over-Year decline indicating sluggishness in procurement activities.
Inventories:
- Factory inventories maintained an overall higher level than last year while overall social inventories experienced a small reduction reflecting demand challenges and production alignment delays.
Profit Margins:
- Recent data confirms significant losses within the industry with industry-reported costs at nearly 3988 yuan/ tonne and negative margins across much of the sector further indicating tight margins under pressure due to higher raw material costs plus weaker selling prices.

The analysis suggests continued cautious sentiment for the coming weeks until stronger demand signals emerge or inventory levels show more significant changes.

中文总结

化工品周报：沥青市场分析（2024年5月10日）

提交人：许亮 | 咨询编号：Z0002220
复核人：唐韵 | 编号：Z0002422

市场概况

五一假期后，国内沥青期货价格跳空低开，随后回落至 3600–3800 元/吨 区间。现货价格方面，山东地区沥青报价区间为 3660–374 最低价 下调约 50元，反映市场交投偏弱。

基本面情况

供应端：
本周国内 83家主要炼厂开工率为30.43%，周环比下降 0.97%；3月月度产量为237万吨，同比降11%。
需求端：
国内 3月表观需求量为258万吨，同比下降9.8%；2023年度总需求量约3170万吨，同比增19%。
库存情况：
截至5月9日，主要企业 库存率为42.18%，社会库存率为47.2%。本周库存去化幅度微弱，但仍高于去年同期水平。