2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Islamic_Republic_of_Mauritania_Three_94页_1mb

IMF Country Report No. 17/369: Islamic Republic of Mauritania

Core Content Summary

The Islamic Republic of Mauritania requested a three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2017. The ECF-supported program aims to address the country's challenges in economic growth, stability, sustainability, and poverty reduction. The program was approved for SDR 115.92 million (about US$ 163.9 million, or 90% of Mauritania's quota), with an initial disbursement of SDR 16.56 million (about US$ 23.4 million).

The program includes a range of policies designed to:

• Modernize the monetary policy framework and introduce a competitive foreign exchange market to improve access to foreign exchange, increase exchange rate flexibility, and support growth.
• Create fiscal space for infrastructure investment and social spending while maintaining a path of fiscal consolidation to strengthen debt sustainability.
• Strengthen financial sector supervision and reinforce contingency plans to enhance financial stability.
• Support inclusive growth through structural reforms, improved business climate, and expanded social policies.

The IMF staff supports the program, noting that the authorities have demonstrated strong adjustment policies and commitment to reform. The implementation risks are significant due to the economy's vulnerability to shocks, but are mitigated by existing buffers and the authorities' resolve.

Main Points

• Economic Context: Mauritania is a commodity exporter, heavily reliant on mining and fishing. The sharp drop in iron ore prices in 2014-15 led to a significant decline in export revenues, widened fiscal imbalances, and exposed financial vulnerabilities.
• Macroeconomic Impact:
  • Real GDP growth rebounded to 1.6% in 2016 and 3.1% in 2017.
  • Inflation remained subdued at 0.8% in October 2017.
  • Public debt was reduced to 69% of GDP, but remains a concern.
• Fiscal Adjustments:
  • The budget deficit was cut by close to 5% of NEGDP in 2016-17.
  • The authorities implemented measures to control current spending and streamline public employment.
• Exchange Rate and Liquidity:
  • The exchange rate depreciated by 16% against the dollar in 2016.
  • Liquidity conditions improved slightly, but credit growth remained limited at 5.5%.
• Debt Management:
  • External public debt is projected to decline to 68.1% of GDP by 2017.
  • Non-concessional borrowing is limited to strengthen debt sustainability.
• Structural Reforms and Strategy:
  • A long-term inclusive growth strategy covering 2017-30 was prepared, focusing on diversification, infrastructure, and governance.
  • The "Strategy for Accelerated Growth and Shared Prosperity" was adopted in October 2017 and is expected to be submitted to parliament in early 2018.
• Financial Sector Reforms:
  • Bank supervision and regulatory upgrades are emphasized.
  • Non-performing loan (NPL) ratio improved to 23% in 2017 from 25.5% in 2016.
• Business Climate and Governance:
  • Mauritania improved its ranking in the World Bank's Doing Business report by 10 points in 2017 and 26 points over three years.
  • Governance remains weak, with Mauritania ranked in the lowest 20th percentile according to the Worldwide Governance Indicators.

Key Information

• IMF Support: US$ 163.9 million under the ECF, with US$ 23.4 million disbursed immediately.
• Program Objectives:
  • Address economic growth, stability, and sustainability challenges.
  • Catalyze external financing and support long-term inclusive growth.
  • Reduce poverty and inequality.
• Expected Outcomes:
  • Continued fiscal consolidation to strengthen debt sustainability.
  • Improved access to foreign exchange and exchange rate flexibility.
  • Enhanced financial stability through better supervision and regulatory upgrades.
• Risks and Prospects:
  • Near-term prospects are positive, supported by improved terms of trade and FDI in extractive sectors.
  • Risks include continued volatility in metal prices, weather-related events, and regional security developments.
  • A potential game-changer is the development of a recently discovered offshore gas field, expected to start production in 2021.

Program Modalities

• The ECF arrangement includes a phased disbursement over three years.
• The program is supported by the Letter of Intent and Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies.
• The authorities have engaged with bilateral partners and development banks to secure concessional financing for key projects.
• The program emphasizes the importance of political commitment and implementation for success.

Staff Appraisal

• The staff report was completed on November 21, 2017, following discussions with Mauritanian officials in October 2017.
• The program is seen as appropriate and necessary to address the country's macroeconomic and structural challenges.
• Implementation risks are acknowledged, but the authorities have shown strong commitment and have already implemented significant adjustment measures.

Political Context

• A constitutional referendum in August 2017 abolished the Senate and certain judicial institutions.
• Municipal and parliamentary elections are due in 2018, and presidential elections in mid-2019.
• The president has stated he will not seek a third term, indicating a stable political environment.

Economic Indicators (Selected)