2022-12-03-美联储-CBDC的宏观经济含义_文献综述（英）_65页_705kb

The Macroeconomic Implications of CBDC: A Review of the Literature

Summary by Design Features

The literature indicates that Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) could improve welfare by reducing financial frictions, enhancing efficiency, promoting financial inclusion and improving monetary policy transmission under certain design features.

Key Findings

1. Banking Sector Implications

   • Disintermediation Risk: CBDC design features (e.g., remuneration, account intermediation) determine its impact on bank deposits; low/high remuneration or substitutes may cause storage shifts, affecting bank profitability and lending capacity.
   • Synergies and Substitution: Reduced deposit substitutability may limit bank disintermediation, while alternative funding sources like wholesale capital can partially offset negative effects.

2. Financial Stability

   • Run Risk: CBDC may increase systemic run potential if closely substituting with deposits; design tools like tiered remuneration, quantity caps, or direct convertibility friction can mitigate risks.
   • Inclusion Benefits: Can improve access for unbanked populations through low-fee options, interoperable payment systems (e.g., Brazil's Pix) and addressing barriers like minimum balance requirements.

3. Monetary Policy

   • Remunerated CBDC: Could serve as an additional policy tool to enhance transmission, but may complicate interest rate implementation if crowded out from existing instruments.
   • ELB Constraints: Non-remunerated CBDC could reinforce the effective lower bound on nominal rates; remunerated CBDC may resolve negative rates but requires careful design.

Critical Design Features

• Remuneration: Most salient feature influencing substitutability and transmission.
• Account- vs. Token-Based: Affects consumer privacy and banking intermediation.
• Network Exter nalities: Volume limits or caps balance between inclusion gains and systemics risks mitigation.

Uncertainties

• Tradeoffs between promoting innovation, financial inclusion and maintaining banking system stability.
• Role of CBDC in open economies and spillover effects on monetary policy autonomy.
• Impact on payment system architecture and financial intermediation remains understudied.

Conclusion: CBDC implementation depends critically on specific design choices; potential benefits may not materialize if institutions adopt suboptimal CBDC properties but significant positive effects remain possible under careful design. (Based on Infante et al, 2022)