泰国零售CBDC的货币和金融视角（英）-42页_2mb

Summary of "Monetary and Financial Perspectives on Retail CBDC in the Thai Context"

Core Content

This paper examines the potential introduction and implications of retail Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in Thailand, focusing on three main areas: the role of public money in the digital age, the implications of retail CBDC on monetary policy, and the effects on financial institution stability.

Main Views

• Digitalization of Money and Payment: The evolution of payment methods has been driven by financial innovation, starting from credit cards in the 1950s to mobile payments and cryptocurrencies. The rise of private-issued and foreign digital currencies, such as stablecoins, could challenge the dominance of sovereign currency and affect monetary sovereignty and financial stability.

• Retail CBDC as an Alternative to Cash: Unremunerated retail CBDC is projected to be the most attractive substitute for cash within a decade, due to its speed, scalability, and legal tender status. It could offer a more efficient and inclusive form of public money, particularly in a digital environment where traditional payment methods are evolving.

• Monetary Policy Implications: Retail CBDC could enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy through the bank rate channel and the introduction of new policy tools. However, it is not the primary objective for the central bank to issue CBDC. There are concerns regarding the impact on the central bank's balance sheet and monetary operations, especially with remunerated CBDC. The central bank must also consider how CBDC might affect the transmission of monetary policy and the seigniorage.

• Financial Stability Risks: The introduction of retail CBDC could pose disintermediation and liquidity risks to the banking sector. While these risks are generally low in normal periods, they could escalate during financial distress. Therefore, well-designed CBDC features are essential to prevent liquidity issues and maintain financial stability.

Key Information

• Adoption Potential: Unremunerated retail CBDC is expected to replace a significant portion of cash usage, though not entirely. The adoption path is influenced by user preferences, technological developments, and government initiatives. The paper applies the Bass model of technology diffusion to project adoption trends, assuming it mirrors that of e-money.

• User Preferences: The attractiveness of retail CBDC is assessed based on criteria such as speed, scalability, extra services, acceptance, interest returns, and anonymity. Unremunerated retail CBDC scores highly on these aspects, especially in terms of transactional efficiency and legal tender status.

• Benefits of Retail CBDC:

  • Enhances efficiency and reduces transaction costs.
  • Offers a reliable and safe payment method.
  • May reduce gray and black market activities by providing a traceable digital transaction trail.
  • Facilitates more effective government transfers and targeted public policies through real-time data access.
  • Provides a platform for financial innovation and interoperability with private sector services.

• Drawbacks and Concerns:

  • Scalability limitations for e-money may hinder its long-term use.
  • Stablecoins are less attractive due to their speculative nature and potential regulatory risks.
  • The central bank must balance the benefits of CBDC with the risks to the financial system, including disintermediation and liquidity issues.

• Public Demand:

  • Unremunerated retail CBDC is likely to be used primarily as a medium of exchange.
  • Remunerated retail CBDC may not replace bank deposits due to the latter's ability to provide additional financial services.
  • Certain user groups, such as the elderly and those in remote areas, may still prefer cash for its anonymity and accessibility.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that while retail CBDC has significant potential to improve the efficiency and inclusiveness of the monetary system, it must be introduced with careful consideration of its impact on monetary policy and financial stability. The central bank should be prepared to issue retail CBDC if there is a demonstrated public demand for a more efficient and equitable form of public money, but it must also mitigate the risks to the financial sector through appropriate design and regulation.