2018-可再生能源的地缘政治（英文版）-1mb

The Geopolitics of Renewable Energy Summary

Core Content

This working paper explores the evolving role of renewable energy in global geopolitics, highlighting how the traditional dominance of oil and gas in international relations is being challenged by the rapid growth of renewable energy sources. It examines the potential geopolitical impacts of a global shift to renewables through various scenarios and mechanisms, offering a framework for understanding the complex interactions between energy transitions and international politics.

Main Points

1. Renewable Energy Scenarios

• The paper evaluates six major forecasting and backcasting scenarios from international agencies and companies, including:

  • IEA World Energy Outlook 2016
  • EIA International Energy Outlook 2016
  • IRENA REmap 2016
  • Bloomberg New Energy Outlook 2016
  • BP Energy Outlook 2016
  • Exxon-Mobil Outlook for Energy 2016
  • IEA and IRENA G20 de-carbonization scenario (2017)

• Forecasting Scenarios: These assume current trends continue and project modest growth in renewable energy, with the share of renewables in the energy mix expected to increase from 11.95% in 2014 to 16.12% in 2040. None anticipate a revolution where renewables surpass fossil fuels in the near future.

• Backcasting Scenarios: These define a desired future and work backward to identify necessary steps. They suggest that renewables could account for 30–45% of total primary energy by 2035/2040 and 50–70% by 2050.

2. Key Mechanisms

The paper outlines seven mechanisms through which renewable energy could reshape geopolitics:

• Critical Materials Supply Chains
• Technology and Finance
• New "Resource Curse"
• Electric Grids
• Reduced Oil and Gas Demand
• Avoided Climate Change
• Sustainable Energy Access

3. Critical Materials Supply Chains

• As renewable energy technologies expand, supply chains for critical materials (e.g., rare earth elements, lithium, cobalt, indium) may become focal points for new geopolitical dynamics.
• China currently dominates the mining, production, and processing of rare earth elements.
• There is potential for new cartels to form around these materials, influencing their global distribution and access.

4. Technology and Finance

• The rise of renewables may shift the focus of international cooperation and rivalry from oil and gas to technology and finance.
• Technology transfer between developed and developing countries could become a source of tension.
• Renewable energy infrastructure may lead to new asymmetric dependencies.
• The future of energy generation could be either decentralized (like farming) or dominated by large firms (like mobile phone manufacturers), with implications for global competition and investment.

5. New "Resource Curse"

• The traditional resource curse, where resource-rich countries face economic and political instability, may evolve with the rise of renewable energy.
• Petro-states may lose their economic rents as oil and gas lose dominance.
• Renewable energy producers may face different challenges than oil and gas producers, potentially leading to new forms of resource dependency and economic diversification.

6. Electric Grids

• Renewable energy could lead to increased electric interconnections and more widespread distributed generation.
• This could create both vulnerabilities (e.g., to cyber attacks) and resilience (e.g., through microgrids).
• The transformation of energy systems may alter the balance of power between countries, depending on their energy infrastructure and interdependence.

7. Reduced Oil and Gas Demand

• A shift to renewables could significantly reduce global demand for oil and gas, impacting both producers and consumers.
• Producers may face economic and political pressures to diversify, while consumers could benefit from improved trade balances and greater energy independence.
• Countries like Chile, Jordan, Morocco, and several island states have already seen significant changes in energy security due to renewable deployment.

8. Avoided Climate Change

• Reduced greenhouse gas emissions from renewables could mitigate the geopolitical risks associated with climate change.
• Africa is highlighted as a region where large-scale renewable deployment may have significant geopolitical consequences.

9. Sustainable Energy Access

• Access to modern energy is crucial for sustainable development.
• Renewable energy can help address energy poverty, especially in remote areas.
• In unstable environments, geopolitical factors may influence renewable energy investments by affecting the cost of capital.

Key Information

• Participants and Funding: The working paper was developed with contributions from multiple institutions and funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Middle East Initiative Kuwait Program.
• Focus: The paper is focused on the geopolitical implications of a large-scale shift to renewable energy, not the broader geopolitics of a low-carbon future.
• Purpose: It aims to provide a framework for further research and discussion on the intersection of renewable energy and global politics.
• Limitations: The paper acknowledges that the current literature on renewable energy geopolitics is limited and often based on gray literature.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that while the geopolitics of renewable energy has not yet received the same level of attention as that of oil and gas, it is becoming increasingly important as the global energy landscape evolves. It suggests that future research should explore the potential for new resource dependencies, the role of technology and finance, and the impact of energy transitions on international relations.

Areas for Further Research

• Scenario Building
• Modeling
• Index of Geopolitical Vulnerability
• Geographically Based Review
• Analytical Distinctions

Annexes

• Annex I: Literature Review – Provides an overview of existing research and identifies gaps in understanding renewable energy's geopolitical impact.
• Annex II: Workshop Program – Details the structure and objectives of the Berlin workshop.
• Annex III: Workshop Participants – Lists the participants and their contributions to the discussion.