【国际可再生能源署】地缘政治能源转型关键材料2023_150页_7mb

Summary for Policy Makers: Geopolitics of the Energy Transition – Critical Materials

Core Content

The energy transition is a significant driver of demand for critical materials, which are essential for renewable energy technologies. These materials include lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, manganese, rare earth elements, and platinum group metals. The report highlights the geopolitical implications of this transition, emphasizing the need for secure, sustainable, and inclusive supply chains.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Critical Materials and the Energy Transition

• The energy transition will require a dramatic increase in the supply of critical materials due to the growing demand for renewable technologies.
• Currently, the demand for these materials is not primarily for energy transition purposes but will grow significantly as the transition progresses.
• IRENA's $1.5^\circ C$ scenario shows the massive scale of infrastructure and materials needed to achieve climate stabilization, including 33,000 GW of renewable power and the electrification of 90% of road transport by 2050.
• Lithium is currently experiencing a notable supply-demand mismatch, highlighting the urgency of addressing this issue.

2. Criticality of Materials

• The criticality of materials is dynamic and influenced by economic, geopolitical, and technological factors.
• There is no universally accepted definition of critical materials, and many countries and regions maintain their own lists, which reflect current technologies and global supply dynamics.
• IRENA's analysis of 35 lists found that 51 materials used in the energy transition appear on at least one list.

3. Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Geopolitical Risks

• Critical material supply disruptions have minimal impact on energy security but can significantly hinder the energy transition.
• The energy transition is not just about replacing fossil fuels with renewables, but also about shifting from fossil fuel dependency to critical material dependency.
• The current notion of energy security is mainly concerned with fossil fuel availability, while the energy transition is more about ensuring the availability of critical materials for renewable technologies.

4. Geographic Concentration of Mining and Processing

• The mining and processing of critical materials are geographically concentrated, with a few countries dominating the supply.
• Key mining countries include:
  • Lithium: Australia (46.9%), Chile (30.0%), China (14.6%), Argentina (4.7%), Brazil (1.6%), Others (2.2%)
  • Cobalt: Democratic Republic of the Congo (70.0%), Indonesia (5.4%), Russian Federation (4.8%), Australia (3.2%), Canada (2.1%), Cuba (2.0%), Philippines (2.0%), Others (10.5%)
  • Nickel: Indonesia (48.8%), Philippines (10.1%), Russian Federation (6.7%), France (New Caledonia) (5.8%), Australia (4.9%), Canada (4.0%), China (3.3%), Brazil (2.5%), Others (13.9%)
  • Copper: Chile (23.6%), Peru (10.0%), Democratic Republic of the Congo (10.0%), China (8.6%), United States (5.9%), Russian Federation (4.5%), Indonesia (4.1%), Australia (3.7%), Zambia (3.5%), Mexico (3.3%), Others (16.1%)
  • Manganese: South Africa (35.8%), Gabon (22.9%), Australia (16.4%), China (4.9%), Ghana (4.7%), India (2.4%), Brazil (2.0%), Ukraine (2.0%), Côte d'Ivoire (1.8%), Malaysia (1.8%), Others (5.3%)
  • Neodymium: China (45.8%), Australia (23.1%), Greenland (8.2%), Myanmar (7.4%), Brazil (4.4%), India (2.1%), Others (9.0%)
  • Platinum: South Africa (73.6%), Russian Federation (10.5%), Zimbabwe (7.8%), Canada (3.1%), United States (1.7%), Others (3.3%)

5. Market Concentration and Trade Dynamics

• The mining industry is dominated by a few major companies, creating small and often oligopolistic markets.
• The top five mining companies control 61% of lithium output and 56% of cobalt output.
• Trade in critical materials is much smaller in value compared to fossil fuel trade. Most critical materials are not widely traded on exchanges, which limits hedging opportunities but allows traders to play a key role in matching producers and consumers.

6. Strategies for Risk Reduction and Opportunity Expansion

• The report outlines strategies to ensure a reliable and equitable supply of critical materials, including:
  • Mitigating supply chain vulnerability
  • Increasing domestic benefits in developing countries
  • Promoting responsible, sustainable, and transparent supply chains
• It also highlights the importance of national mineral strategies, such as those adopted by several countries from 2010 to 2023.
• The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the G7's five-point plan for critical mineral security are noted as significant policy instruments.

7. Geopolitical and Social Impacts

• The extraction of critical materials poses risks to human security, including environmental degradation, water scarcity, and social tensions, particularly in indigenous and rural communities.
• There are examples of indigenous resistance to mining projects, such as the Fenix nickel mine in Guatemala.
• Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) is a significant source of employment but also raises concerns over sustainability and regulation.

8. Future Outlook and Uncertainties

• Projections for critical material demand are uncertain due to technological advancements, material substitutions, and efficiency improvements.
• The report underscores the importance of proactive governance and policy-making to address these uncertainties and ensure the energy transition remains on track.

Conclusion

The energy transition is reshaping global mineral and metal demand, creating both opportunities and risks. The report serves as a guide for policymakers, industry leaders, and researchers to understand and manage the geopolitical implications of this shift, ensuring that the supply chains for critical materials are inclusive, ethical, and sustainable.