全球可再生能源机遇-15页_1mb

Wood Mackenzie's report "Global Opportunities in Renewables" highlights the need for strong policy action and technology development to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, particularly for limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. The report presents three energy transition scenarios based on Wood Mackenzie's Energy Transition Outlook (ETO): a Pledges Case (aligned with below 2°C warming), an AET-1.5 scenario (for 1.5°C warming), and an ETO base case.

Global CO2 emissions are projected to decrease significantly under ambitious scenarios, with net zero commitments covering 88% of global GHG emissions. End-use energy demand must peak by the 2030s to meet 2050 targets, and electricity generation from renewables is expected to rise, potentially reaching 50% of global power output by 2050. Asia-Pacific is a key region, with renewable capacity additions targeting 1,542 GW by 2026, led by China, and investments growing to US$150 billion annually by 2030.

Total capital required from 2022 to 2050 is estimated at US$45 to US$65 trillion, with power and infrastructure accounting for 75%. The transition era will attract US$2.9 trillion in power investments by 2031, driven by factors like grid modernization and energy storage. Challenges include market volatility due to regulatory reforms and cost variations in technologies like coal and gas, while opportunities arise from corporate PPAs and green hydrogen development.

This summary is based on the report prepared for the Thailand Energy Academy, dated 02 March 2023, by Melvin Chen and Antoine Gaudin.