2011年-ECB欧洲央行_Results_of_the_ECB_survey_of_professional_forecasters_for_the_first_quarter_of_2011_6页_315kb

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for Q1 2011 Summary

Core Content

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the first quarter of 2011 provides insights into the expectations of professional forecasters regarding key macroeconomic indicators for the euro area, including inflation, real GDP growth, and unemployment. The survey was conducted between 14 and 18 January 2011, with 56 responses from experts affiliated with financial or non-financial institutions in the EU.

Inflation Expectations

• 2011 Inflation Expectation: 1.9% (up 0.4 percentage points from the previous SPF round in Q4 2010).
• 2012 Inflation Expectation: 1.8% (up 0.2 percentage points from the previous SPF round).
• Reason for Revision: Higher oil and commodity prices, expected to have a temporary impact.
• Longer-term (2015) Inflation Expectation: Revised slightly upwards to 2.0% from 1.9% in the previous round.
• Probability Distribution:
  • 38% probability for inflation between 1.5% and 1.9%.
  • 31% probability for inflation between 2.0% and 2.4%.
  • The probability of inflation being 2% or above increased to 48%.
• Key Risks:
  • Upside: Instability in commodity markets, increases in levies and taxes, excess liquidity in financial markets.
  • Downside: Low wage pressures, modest activity, high unemployment, and a stronger euro.

Real GDP Growth Expectations

• 2011 Real GDP Growth: 1.6% (up 0.1 percentage points from the previous SPF round).
• 2012 Real GDP Growth: 1.7% (unchanged from the previous SPF round).
• Comparison:
  • Within the range of the December 2010 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections.
  • Slightly above the latest Consensus Economics and Euro Zone Barometer forecasts.
• Probability Distribution:
  • 39% probability for GDP growth between 1.5% and 1.9% in 2011.
  • 27% probability for GDP growth between 1.0% and 1.4% in 2011.
  • In 2012, the distribution shifted slightly upwards, still concentrated between 1.5% and 1.9%.
• Uncertainty:
  • No change in uncertainty levels for one- and two-year-ahead GDP forecasts.
• Key Risks:
  • Downside: Continued fiscal consolidation, financial sector deleveraging.
  • Upside: Further strengthening of domestic demand, particularly in Germany.
  • Global Risks: Diverse views on risks to global growth.

Unemployment Rate Expectations

• 2011 Unemployment Rate: 9.9% (down 0.1 percentage point from the previous SPF round).
• 2012 Unemployment Rate: 9.6% (unchanged from the previous SPF round).
• Longer-term (2015) Unemployment Rate: 8.3% (unchanged).
• Balance of Risks:
  • Assessed as on the upside for both 2011 and 2012.
  • Longer-term outlook also assessed as on the upside.

Other Variables and Assumptions

• Oil Prices: Expected to rise from USD 91 per barrel in Q1 2011 to USD 93 per barrel in Q4 2011.
• Wage Growth: Expected to be 1.7% in 2011 and gradually increase to 2.3% in 2015.
• Euro Exchange Rate: Expected to average USD 1.32 in Q1–Q3 2011 and appreciate slightly to USD 1.33 in Q4 2011.
• ECB Policy Rate: Expected to remain stable at around 1.0% until Q2 2011, then increase to 1.7% on average in 2012.

Additional Notes

• The SPF results reflect a heterogeneous set of subjective views.
• Additional data can be found on the ECB's website.
• Financial market indicators of inflation expectations, such as break-even inflation rates, have shown volatility but remain consistent with price stability.
• These measures should not be interpreted mechanically as reflecting changes in long-term inflation expectations due to their inclusion of inflation risk premiums and market liquidity fluctuations.