20170630-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_15页_670kb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides an analysis of stock performance and company updates for various regions, including Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore, as well as Thailand. It includes stock recommendations, financial data, key assumptions, corporate events, and valuation insights.
Main Points and Key Information
Hong Kong: Wharf (Holdings)
- Stock Recommendation: SELL
- Current Price: HK$65.45
- Target Price: HK$59.23
- Upside: -9.5%
- Discount to NAV: 37%
- Company Update:
- Wharf is considering restructuring into two separate entities: one for stable income-producing properties (Wharf A) and another for higher-risk development properties in China (Wharf B).
- The restructuring is expected to offer different risk-reward propositions to various investors, potentially narrowing the steep discount for Wharf A but widening it for Wharf B.
- Management does not consider the REIT structure for Wharf A due to lack of tax advantages.
- Key Financials:
- Net Profit (adj.): Expected to decline from 46.0% in 2016 to 38.8% in 2017, and remain stable in 2018-19.
- EPS (cent): Projected to fall from 453.8 in 2016 to 461.7 in 2017, then rise to 488.6 in 2018.
- PE (x): Expected to decrease from 14.4 in 2016 to 14.2 in 2017, and further to 13.4 in 2018.
- Net Debt/Equity: Expected to rise from 7.5% in 2016 to 15.0% in 2017, then decrease to 12.9% in 2018.
- Stock Impact:
- The restructuring could enlarge the investor base and narrow the discount for Wharf A, while increasing the discount for Wharf B.
- Retail sales growth is slowing, and e-commerce is affecting demand in the Hong Kong retail sector.
- Valuation:
- NAV per Share: HK$94.00
- Discount to NAV: 37%
- Target Price: HK$59.23
Malaysia: Globetronics Technology (GTB MK)
- Stock Recommendation: BUY
- Current Price: RM6.03
- Target Price: RM7.05
- Upside: +16.9%
- Company Update:
- Globetronics is ramping up production of new sensor products, with strong order visibility for light sensors.
- The company is planning Phase 2 capacity expansion for light sensors, expected to increase production to 36m units/month by end-Sep 2017.
- Gesture sensors are expected to see increased demand due to the end-client's bundling strategy.
- Light sensors are expected to have a higher ASP (at least 30% higher) than proximity sensors.
- Key Financials:
- Net Profit CAGR (2016-19): 76%
- Revenue CAGR (2016-19): 43%
- Sensor Segment Contribution to Revenue:
- 2016: 23%
- 2017: 51%
- 2018: 66%
- EPS (sen): Expected to rise from 8.4 in 2016 to 22.5 in 2017, and further to 41.8 in 2018.
- PE (x): Expected to decrease from 71.8 in 2016 to 26.8 in 2017, and then to 14.4 in 2018.
- Net Margin:
- 2016: 11.0%
- 2017: 17.1%
- 2018: 20.5%
- Earnings Revision:
- Net profit forecasts for 2018-19 are raised by 16% and 15% respectively due to Phase 2 expansion and increased ASP.
- No changes to 2017 net profit forecasts due to potential start-up costs.
- Risks:
- Customer concentration
- Forex risk
- Shortage of foreign workers and minimum-wage hikes
- Valuation:
- Target Price: RM7.05 (16.9x 2018F PE)
- Ex-Cash PE: 16.2x 2018F
- Dividend Yield (2018): 6.2% (based on 90% payout ratio)
Key Indices (as of 30 June 2017)
| Index | Prev Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 21287.0 | -0.8 | -0.5 | 1.3 | 7.7 |
| S&P 500 | 2419.7 | -0.9 | -0.6 | 0.3 | 8.1 |
| FTSE 100 | 7350.3 | -0.5 | -1.2 | -2.3 | 2.9 |
| AS30 | 5855.9 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| CSI 300 | 3668.8 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 10.8 |
| FSSTI | 3258.7 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 13.1 |
| HSCEI | 10432.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | -1.6 | 11.0 |
| HSI | 25965.4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 18.0 |
| JCI | 5829.7 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 10.1 |
| KLCI | 1771.4 | 0.0 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 7.9 |
| KOSPI | 2395.7 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 18.2 |
| Nikkei 225 | 20220.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 2.9 | 5.8 |
| SET | 1578.1 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| TWSE | 10421.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 3.8 | 12.6 |
| BDI | 929 | 2.9 | 8.7 | 1.9 | -3.3 |
| CPO (RM/ml) | 2623 | 0.1 | 0.6 | -8.1 | -18.0 |
| Brent Crude (US$/bbl) | 47 | 0.2 | 4.9 | -9.3 | -16.5 |
Corporate Events
| Event | Venue | Begin | Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luncheon with United Overseas Bank | Singapore | 3 Jul | 3 Jul |
| Roadshow with Hopefluent Group Holdings Limited | Singapore, Kuala Lumpur | 4 Jul, 6 Jul | 5 Jul, 6 Jul |
| Analyst Marketing on Thai Strategy & Thai Telco | Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia | 3 Jul, 5 Jul, 6 Jul | 4 Jul, 5 Jul, 7 Jul |
| Luncheon with Wisdom Education International Holdings | Hong Kong | 7 Jul | 7 Jul |
| Roadshow with Jacobson Pharma | Shanghai | 7 Jul | 7 Jul |
| New Economy Conference 2017 | Kuala Lumpur | 11 Jul | 11 Jul |
| Roadshow with Citic Environtech Ltd | Taipei | 18 Jul | 19 Jul |
| Analyst Marketing on Singapore Strategy & Small & Mid Caps | Taipei | 20 Jul | 21 Jul |
| Visit to Sarawak Corridor of Renewable Energy | Sarawak | 1 Aug | 3 Aug |
| Roadshow with Top Glove Corporation | US/Canada | 5 Sep | 12 Sep |
Summary of Recommendations
- BUY Recommendations:
- Globetronics Technology (GTB MK): Target price RM7.05, +16.9% upside
- SELL Recommendations:
- Wharf (Holdings) (4 HK): Target price HK$59.23, -9.5% upside
Analysts
- Wharf (Holdings): Vikrant Pandey, +65 6590 6623, vikrant@uobkayhian.com
- Globetronics Technology: Yeoh Bit Kun, +603 2147 1988, bitkun@uobkayhian.com
Summary of Key Metrics
Wharf (Holdings)
| Metric | 2016 | 2017F | 2018F | 2019F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA Margin | 39.6% | 29.8% | 32.6% | 32.0% |
| Pre-tax Margin | 55.3% | 50.9% | 48.0% | 47.9% |
| Net Margin | 46.0% | 40.8% | 38.8% | 38.8% |
| ROE | 6.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| Net Debt/Equity | 7.5% | 15.0% | 12.9% | 12.4% |
Globetronics Technology
| Metric | 2016 | 2017F | 2018F | 2019F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA Margin | 20.7% | 11.9% | 17.1% | 20.5% |
| Pre-tax Margin | 9.1% | 23.2% | 40.8% | 43.3% |
| Net Margin | 11.0% | 17.1% | 20.5% | 20.7% |
| ROE | 24.4% | 23.2% | 40.8% | 43.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.8% | 2.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% |
| Net Debt/Equity | -55.8% | -62.7% | -36.1% | -28.5% |
Summary of Key Financial Projections
- Wharf (Holdings):
- Net Profit (adj.) CAGR: 38.8% in 2017, 38.8% in 2018
- Net Profit (adj.) for 2017: HK$13,993.6m
- Net Profit (adj.) for 2018: HK$14,808.6m
- Net Debt/Equity for 2017: 15.0%
- Globetronics Technology:
- Net Profit CAGR (2016-19): 76%
- Net Profit (adj.) for 2017: RM64m
- Net Profit (adj.) for 2018: RM118m
- Net Margin for 2017: 17.1%
- Net Margin for 2018: 20.5%
Conclusion
The document outlines the strategic restructuring plans of Wharf (Holdings) and highlights the potential for improved performance through separate listings. It also emphasizes Globetronics Technology's growth in the sensor segment and its potential to outperform due to new product launches and increased demand. Both companies are evaluated in terms of financial metrics, valuation, and market performance, with specific recommendations and target prices provided.
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