IMF-全球贸易格局变化中的韩国_韩国（英）-2025_16页_1mb

Summary: Korea in a Changing Global Trade Landscape

Core Content

This paper analyzes the impact of geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) and the rise of industrial policies (IPs) on Korea's export-oriented economy. It highlights how these global trends are reshaping Korea's trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) strategies, particularly in its strategic sectors such as semiconductors and electric vehicles (EVs). The paper also outlines policy recommendations for Korea to adapt to the evolving international trade environment.

Main Viewpoints

• Korea's Export Dependency: Korea is a major exporter, with exports accounting for around 40% of GDP in 2023. Its exports are highly integrated into global value chains (GVCs), especially in semiconductors and automobiles.
• Impact of GEF and IPs: Geoeconomic fragmentation and the resurgence of industrial policies are significantly altering global trade dynamics. These trends are creating both opportunities and challenges for Korea, particularly in its export and FDI strategies.
• U.S.-China Trade Tensions: Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have led to a shift in Korea's export destinations and FDI flows. Korean exports to the U.S. have increased, while exports to China have declined due to trade restrictions and shifting supply chains.
• Technology and Supply Chain Restrictions: Technology export controls and restrictions on critical minerals have affected Korea's semiconductor and EV sectors. These policies have created near-term competitive advantages but also long-term risks.
• Industrial Policy Responses: Korea has responded to the global industrial policy wave with its own initiatives, such as the K-Chips Act, to maintain competitiveness in strategic sectors. These policies are seen as a second-best solution to the challenges posed by GEF and IPs.
• Need for Innovation and Diversification: Promoting innovation is critical for Korea to maintain its technological edge and global market share. Diversifying export destinations and supply chains is also essential to reduce risks from trade fragmentation.

Key Information

Economic Overview

• Korea is the 8th largest exporter globally, with exports making up ~40% of GDP.
• Major export items include semiconductors (~20% of total exports), automobiles (~12% of total exports), and consumer electronics.
• The U.S. and China are the top two export destinations, with the U.S. share rising to 18% in 2023 and China's share declining.

Geoeconomic Fragmentation

• GEF is driven by geopolitical tensions, including the U.S.-China trade war, Brexit, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
• Trade and FDI flows have slowed since the GFC, with a notable increase in restrictive trade measures.
• Korea's exports to the U.S. have grown due to the U.S.-China trade tensions, but this growth is not entirely due to trade tensions.

Industrial Policies

• U.S.: The CHIPS and Science Act (2022) and Inflation Reduction Act (2022) have provided significant support for semiconductor and EV industries, with tax credits and subsidies.
• EU: The European Chips Act (2023) aims to increase Europe's share of cutting-edge semiconductors.
• Japan: The Strategy for Semiconductors and the Digital Industry (2021) includes a $25.7 billion investment in the semiconductor industry.
• China: Made in China 2025 (2015) and the National Integrated Circuit Industry Fund have supported domestic content in semiconductors.

Korea's Industrial Policy Response

• The K-Chips Act (2022) offers a 15% tax credit for investments in strategic industries, including semiconductors.
• Additional incentives and investments have been announced to expand semiconductor production and support EV manufacturing in the U.S.

Policy Recommendations

• Promote Innovation: Enhance R&D and public research to maintain Korea's technological edge.
• Diversify Export Destinations and Supply Chains: Reduce reliance on the U.S. and China by expanding trade relationships with other countries.
• Expand Service Exports: Focus on services such as cultural content, digital services, and manufacturing-related services to diversify the economy.
• Improve Market Flexibility: Reduce regulatory burdens and enhance labor market efficiency to boost competitiveness.
• Strengthen Trade Agreements: Expand and deepen Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) to support supply chain resilience and economic partnerships.

Conclusion

Korea faces significant challenges due to the global shift toward geoeconomic fragmentation and industrial policies. To remain competitive, the country must prioritize innovation, diversification, and flexibility in its trade and industrial strategies. The paper emphasizes the need for balanced and non-discriminatory industrial policies that align with international obligations and support long-term economic resilience.