曼哈顿政策研究所-警察不在维持治安了吗？证据回顾（英文）-2021.4-20页_3mb

Summary of "Policing Without the Police?"

Core Content

This report critically examines the movement to defund and replace the police with civilian alternatives, arguing that such proposals are largely based on weak evidence and would undermine public safety. The author, Charles Fain Lehman, emphasizes that while the idea of reforming policing is valid, the push to abolish the police entirely is misguided and potentially dangerous.

Main Arguments

• Defunding the police is not a viable solution for crime reduction. There is little empirical support for the effectiveness of civilian alternatives in reducing crime, and the evidence for police efficacy is strong.
• Civilian alternatives are not well-suited to the core function of stopping crime. These alternatives, such as neighborhood watches and nonpolice guardians, are often less equipped to handle high-risk situations that require the use of force.
• Reallocating police funding to social services has limited impact. While the police budget is a significant portion of city spending, it represents only a small fraction of overall government expenditure. Redirecting funds to social programs would not significantly alter the scale of those programs and could lead to increased crime in areas previously policed.
• The "both/and" approach is more promising. Policymakers should explore complementary tools to support police work, rather than replacing it entirely. These tools can help reduce the burden on overtaxed police forces and improve public safety.

Key Evidence-Based Alternatives

1. Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED)

• Street Lighting: Randomized trials in New York show that improved lighting can reduce nighttime outdoor crime by up to 60% or 36%, depending on the study. It also increases public safety perceptions, which can indirectly reduce crime.
• Restoration of Vacant Lots: Studies show that cleaning up vacant lots reduces crime, gun violence, burglary, and fear of crime. In Philadelphia, every dollar spent on vacant lot remediation returned $26 in cost savings.
• Greening Public Spaces: Planting trees and creating green areas in cities is associated with lower crime rates. In NYC, the "Million Trees" initiative returned $5.60 for every $1 invested.
• Alley Gating: Installing locked gates on alleys can cut burglary rates by nearly half, as seen in the UK and in studies of alley gating in the U.S.

2. Nonpolice Guardians

• Neighborhood Watch Programs: These can extend the reach of the police and promote community involvement in crime prevention.
• CCTV Cameras: Surveillance technology can deter crime and assist in investigations, making it a useful complement to traditional policing.

3. Alcohol Regulation

• Targeting Problematic Alcohol Use: Stricter enforcement of alcohol-related laws, especially in high-risk areas and times, can reduce crime. This approach is supported by research linking alcohol use to violent behavior.

Conclusion

The author concludes that while the idea of replacing the police is not supported by evidence, there are effective complementary strategies that can enhance public safety. These include environmental design, nonpolice surveillance, and targeted alcohol policies. Policymakers should focus on these tools to support, rather than replace, the police, as they can alleviate the strain on law enforcement and contribute to crime reduction in meaningful ways.