2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Malawi_Second_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Arrangement_and_Request_for_Modification_of_Performance_Criteria_92页_1mb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 13/131: Malawi

Core Content

This document outlines the second review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and the request for modification of performance criteria for Malawi. It includes the Staff Report, Staff Supplement, Press Release, and the Statement by the Executive Director for Malawi. The report details the economic developments, policy reforms, and performance against program targets up to December 2012, as well as policy discussions and risks to the program.

Main Objectives and Program Overview

• Main Objectives: Achieve macroeconomic stability, strengthen social protection programs, improve growth prospects, and reduce poverty.
• Program Basis: The Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (MGDS II) and the government's Economic Recovery Plan.
• ECF Arrangement: Approved in July 2012 for SDR 104.1 million (150% of quota).
• First Review: Completed on December 19, 2012.
• Second Review: Completed on March 29, 2013.

Key Policy Reforms

• Exchange Rate Regime: A flexible market-based exchange rate regime has been implemented since May 2012.
• Fuel Price Mechanism: An automatic adjustment mechanism for fuel prices has been re-introduced to align with import costs and protect government revenues.
• Public Sector Adjustments: The authorities have made concessions in response to political and social pressures, such as wage increases for civil servants, but key reforms remain unchanged.

Economic Performance

• Growth: Real GDP growth slowed to 1.9% in 2012 from 4.3% in 2011, mainly due to a contraction in agricultural output.
• Inflation: Year-on-year inflation rose to 34.6% in December 2012, driven by the depreciation of the kwacha and reduced food production. Inflation is expected to stabilize and decline in the second quarter of 2013.
• Fiscal Performance: The first half of FY2012/13 was broadly in line with the program. Domestic revenues were slightly higher than projected, while grants fell short by about MK8 billion. Disbursements of grants and loans are expected to increase in the second half of the year.
• Monetary Policy: Reserve money growth slowed from 37.3% in the first half of 2012 to -1.2% in the second half. Broad money growth also decelerated from 13.4% to 8.4%.
• Current Account: The current account deficit narrowed from about 6% of GDP in 2011 to about 4.5% in 2012, largely due to increased official transfers.

Policy Discussions and Recommendations

• Monetary Policy: The RBM is maintaining a tight monetary stance to curb inflation. It has raised the policy rate and reduced lending to banks.
• Exchange Rate Stability: The authorities are seeking additional external support to stabilize the exchange rate, particularly through budget or balance of payments support.
• Financial Sector Oversight: The RBM is enhancing supervision of banks, including regular reporting on liquidity and non-performing loans. A mission is planned to assist in strengthening the legal framework for bank resolution.
• Fiscal Restraint: Additional fiscal restraint is being applied to contain aggregate demand and build international reserves. The government's net repayment to the banking system is increased to 1.6% of GDP.
• Social Protection: Social protection programs have been successfully implemented, including the farm input subsidy program, labor-intensive public works, school feeding, school bursary, and social cash transfer. These programs have helped cushion the impact of austerity and exogenous shocks on poor households.

Risks to the Program

• Adverse Weather Conditions: May affect agricultural output and food production.
• Policy Reversals: Especially in the lead-up to the 2014 general elections, could jeopardize recovery and growth prospects.
• Financial Stability: Emerging threats include increased loan default risks, weak liquidity positions in some banks, and potential underreporting of non-performing loans.

Structural Reforms and Social Impact

• Structural Reforms: The government is working to improve the investment climate and boost exports by removing regulatory hurdles and investing in infrastructure.
• Social Impact: Despite public discontent over rising living costs, the authorities remain committed to policy reforms. Social protection programs have expanded, with over 2 million people receiving emergency relief through the World Food Program (WFP).

Conclusion

The staff recommends completion of the second review based on satisfactory performance against program targets and the authorities' policy commitments. Continued policy continuity is essential for macroeconomic stability and sustained recovery. The key challenges remain inflation control and exchange rate stabilization, with risks from adverse weather and potential policy reversals.