2023-06-26-美联储-美联储货币政策报告（2023年6月）_72页_1mb

Introduction: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reaffirms its commitment to dual mandate: maximum employment and price stability. It has raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 5–5.25%, indicating aggressive policy tightening to combat elevated inflation. Employment remains strong, though wage growth is easing. Core inflation is elevated, and inflation is working its way down gradually.

Monetary Policy: The FOMC has increased the target range for the federal funds rate to 5–5.25%. It is reducing its securities holdings to continue the process of significantly reducing its balance sheet. The cumulative tightening is judged to be consistent with achieving the FOMC's inflation and employment objectives. Forward guidance suggests policy will remain restrictive for an “extended period.”

Economic Outlook:

• GDP Growth: Growth slowed modestly in 2023 (1.3%), and projections for 2024–25 are revised downward. Growth is expected to sustain at a moderate pace.
• Unemployment: The labor market remains tight, with the unemployment rate projected to decline gradually but remain near historical lows by year-end 2024.
• Inflation: Core PCE inflation is expected to gradually approach the FOMC's 2 percent longer-run objective over 2024–2026. Inflation has moderated from its peak, and inflation expectations are broadly consistent with the 2 percent goal. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation is projected to average around 3 percent for 2023 before declining to 2 percent by 2026.

Balance Sheet: The FOMC will fully implement its balance sheet runoff and then slow or stop reductions as policy tightens further. Holdings of Treasury and agency securities declined by about $420 billion since early 2023. Reserve balances remain ample, supporting continued implementation of monetary policy.

Financial Stability: Credit conditions have tightened at banks, particularly smaller banks with substantial deposits. Despite this, the banking system remains sound. Corporate and municipal credit quality are strong, and vulnerabilities are tempered. Deregulation measures are proceeding.

Monetary Policy Tools: The FOMC continues to tailor the balance, structure, and timing of its actions to the emergence of new economic data and incoming inflation readings. Simple monetary policy rules suggest even more aggressive rate increases were necessary, aligning broadly with the FOMC’s path.

Financial Markets: Treasury and corporate bond yields rose in early 2023 but have since moderated. S&P 500 and other equity indexes increased moderately, though banks saw sharp sell-offs during recent stress. Bond market liquidity has recovered. Treasury issuance increased notably as concerns about the debt ceiling eased.

Liquidity: On-borrowing at the Federal Reserve has decreased significantly. Bank lending continues to expand, but at a slower pace. Deposit growth has been supported, and banks have high quality liquid assets and high liquidity coverage ratios.

Global Developments: Advanced foreign economies (AFE) have pressed ahead with policy rate hikes, while emerging market economies are less likely to reach the U.S. growth and inflation levels. Global growth is expected to pick up, contributing to United States inflation.

Conclusions: Recent inflation and labor market data broadly support the FOMC’s policy path. The balance sheet will continue to serve as insurance against policy mistakes. Construction of a smooth transition from current high rates to lower rates over an “extended period” requires patience until inflation and employment both sustain their progress.

Forward Guidance: The FOMC will make additional firming in its stance of monetary policy as needed to return inflation to its 2 percent objective in a gradual manner. Once inflation and the labor market return to levels consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate, the Committee will start removing policy accommodation gradually.MONETARy POLICy REPORT: JUNE 2023 65
Abbreviations
AFE advanced foreign economy
AUM assets under management
BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics
BTFP Bank Term Funding Program
C&I commercial and industrial
COVID-19 coronavirus disease 2019
CRE commercial real estate
DI depository institution
DPI disposable personal income
ELB effective lower bound
EME emerging market economy
EPOP ratio employment-to-population ratio
FDIC Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
FOMC Federal Open Market Committee; also, the Committee
GDP gross domestic product
G-SIBs global systemically important banks
MBS mortgage-backed securities
MMF money market fund
ON RRP overnight reverse repurchase agreement
OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
PCE personal consumption expenditures
repo repurchase agreement
SLOOS Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices
SOMA System Open Market Account
S&P Standard & Poor’s
SVB Silicon Valley Bank
VIX implied volatility for the S&P 500 index