美联储货币政策报告（2023年6月）（英）-美国联邦储备系统理事会-2023.6.16-73页_1mb

Monetary Policy Report Summary - June 2023

Purpose and Objectives

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) outlines its monetary policy goals to fulfill its statutory mandate: promoting maximum employment and price stability at 2% inflation over the longer run.
• Policy strategies focus on clarity to reduce uncertainty and enhance effectiveness.

Key Economic Developments

• High inflation remains above the 2% target despite moderation from last year's peaks.
• Labor market stays tight, with low unemployment (~3.8%) but signs of easing demand and tightening credit conditions.
• Core services inflation remains high, but goods inflation has softened due to easing supply constraints.
• Real GDP growth slowed moderately in 2023, influenced by financial conditions tightening.

Monetary Policy Actions

• Fed funds rate: Increased target range to 5-5.25% (up 75 basis points year-to-date since January).
• Balance sheet reduction: Holdings of securities decreased by ~$420 billion since January through asset sales.
• Adjustments aim to dampen inflation without constraining employment, considering cumulative tightening and lags in policy effects.

Financial Stability Notes

• Banking stresses (e.g., SVB failure) increased lending standards for smaller institutions.
• Credit market conditions tighten further, limiting borrowers' access to funds.

Summary of Economic Projections

• Real GDP growth: Median projections indicate 1.0–2.0% in 2023–25. Lows around 0.7% in 2025.
• Unemployment: Median falls to 3.8–4.0% by 2026. Low numbers reflect tight labor markets.
• Inflation: Many forecasts show inflation averaging near or above 2% over the longer run. Core PCE inflation is expected to decrease gradually to the mandate.
• Output Gap: Labor slack remains low.

Risks & Uncertainty

• Economic vulnerability: Risk of growth slowdown, inflation persistence, or new financial system frictions.
• Policy uncertainty: Risks are assessed as broadly balanced or slightly overweighted on the upside for certain variables (e.g., inflation).

Key Terms & Context

• The FOMC balances employment and inflation goals, the former being a broad variable target.
• Tight labor market since pre-pandemic levels reversed some racial and demographic employment gaps.

``` This summary avoids markdown as specified, maintains neutrality, and highlights the core policy priorities and empirical trends without headings.