20150611-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_19页_895kb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - 11 June 2015
Core Content Overview
This document provides a summary of market updates and financial analysis for several regions and companies, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It also includes detailed information on two specific companies: Lijun International (2005 HK) and Xinchen China Power (1148 HK), along with key indices, corporate events, and valuation data.
Key Regional Updates
China
- Lijun International (2005 HK):
- Secondary price negotiations in new markets may result in lower prices and margin pressure.
- Revenue growth is expected to be slow in 2Q15 but may accelerate in 2H15 due to tender wins.
- The company is actively adjusting its product mix to protect profitability.
- Received product licences for plastic ampoule products in June.
- Maintain HOLD with a target price of HK$3.30.
- Current share price: HK$2.81, with an upside of +17.4%.
Indonesia
- Cement Sector:
- Total cement sales volume in 5M15 reached 23mt, showing a -3.3% yoy and +7.2% mom growth.
- Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector with Indocement as the top pick.
Malaysia
- Plantation Sector:
- May 15: Palm oil inventory increased to 2.24m tonnes, higher than market expectations, due to increased imports for domestic refining.
Singapore
- Ho Bee Land (HOBEE SP):
- A commercial REIT in the offering.
- Maintain BUY with a target price of S$2.86.
Thailand
- Sino-Thai Engineering & Construction (STEC TB):
- Biddings for mega projects in 2H15 will boost sales and earnings in 2016.
- Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt25.00.
Key Indices Performance
| Index | Prev Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 18000.4 | 1.3 | -0.4 | -1.0 | 1.0 |
| S&P 500 | 2105.2 | 1.2 | -0.4 | -0.5 | 2.2 |
| FTSE 100 | 6830.3 | 1.1 | -1.7 | -3.1 | 4.0 |
| AS30 | 5486.0 | 0.1 | -2.7 | -2.5 | 1.8 |
| CSI 300 | 5309.1 | -0.2 | 3.2 | 13.2 | 50.2 |
| FSSTI | 3325.8 | 0.9 | -0.7 | -4.2 | -1.2 |
| HSCEI | 13616.7 | -1.8 | -3.5 | -4.0 | 13.6 |
| HSI | 26687.6 | -1.1 | -3.5 | -3.7 | 13.1 |
| JCI | 4933.6 | 0.7 | -3.8 | -4.6 | -5.6 |
| KLCI | 1735.6 | 0.4 | -0.8 | -3.9 | -1.5 |
| KOSPI | 2051.3 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -2.2 | 7.1 |
| Nikkei 225 | 20046.4 | -0.2 | -2.1 | 2.2 | 14.9 |
| SET | 1504.0 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| TWSE | 9298.5 | 1.2 | -2.7 | -3.8 | -0.1 |
| BDI | 618 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 7.7 | -21.0 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2290 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 6.6 | -0.3 |
| Nymex Crude (US$/bbl) | 61 | -0.6 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 14.6 |
Top Picks
| Company | Ticker | Current Price (lcy) | Target Price (lcy) | Pot. +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing Capital | 694 HK | 8.47 | 12.30 | 45.2 |
| ICBC | 1398 HK | 6.51 | 7.80 | 19.8 |
| Bank BJB | BJR J | 880.00 | 1,300.00 | 47.7 |
| Maybank | MAY MK | 9.16 | 10.30 | 12.4 |
| DBS | DBS SP | 20.93 | 25.08 | 19.8 |
| Pacific Radiance | PACRA SP | 0.52 | 0.99 | 90.4 |
| Krong Thai Bank | KTB TB | 18.00 | 27.00 | 50.0 |
| Sino Thai Engr | STEC TB | 22.70 | 25.00 | 10.1 |
Sell Pick:
- UMWH Holdings (UMWH MK): Target price HK$9.00, with a -14.4% potential downside.
Key Assumptions
| Region | GDP (% yoy) | Brent (US$/bbl) | CPO (US$/mt) | BDI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.9 | 65 | 765 | 1,300 |
| Euro Zone | 1.3 | 65 | 765 | 1,300 |
| Japan | 1.0 | 70 | 788 | 1,400 |
| Singapore | 2.9 | 65 | 765 | 1,300 |
| Malaysia | 5.0 | 70 | 788 | 1,400 |
| Thailand | 2.7 | 70 | 788 | 1,400 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 70 | 788 | 1,400 |
| Hong Kong | 3.7 | 70 | 788 | 1,400 |
| China | 7.0 | 70 | 788 | 1,400 |
Company Updates
Lijun International (2005 HK)
- Company Description: Third largest I.V. infusion solution product manufacturer in China.
- Stock Data:
- GICS Sector: Health Care
- Bloomberg Ticker: 2005 HK
- Shares Issued: 2,968.5m
- Market Cap (HK$m): 8,341.6
- Market Cap (US$m): 1,075.9
- 3-mth Avg Daily Turnover (US$m): 6.3
- Price Performance:
- 52-week high/low: HK$4.34 / HK$2.80
- 1mth: -2.7%
- 3mth: -15.4%
- 6mth: -14.9%
- 1yr: 2.0%
- YTD: -16.4%
- Key Financials:
- Net turnover (HK$m): 1,723.3 (2013), 2,091.5 (2014), 2,297.0 (2015F), 2,598.7 (2016F), 2,969.0 (2017F)
- EBITDA (HK$m): 619.3 (2013), 812.8 (2014), 986.0 (2015F), 1,105.9 (2016F), 1,235.2 (2017F)
- Net Profit (HK$m): 369.3 (2013), 491.6 (2014), 638.4 (2015F), 738.2 (2016F), 847.5 (2017F)
- EPS (HK$ cent): 12.6 (2013), 16.7 (2014), 21.7 (2015F), 25.1 (2016F), 28.8 (2017F)
- PE (x): 22.3 (2013), 16.8 (2014), 13.0 (2015F), 11.2 (2016F), 9.8 (2017F)
- P/B (x): 2.9 (2013), 2.5 (2014), 2.2 (2015F), 1.9 (2016F), 1.7 (2017F)
- EV/EBITDA (x): 13.2 (2013), 10.0 (2014), 8.3 (2015F), 7.4 (2016F), 6.6 (2017F)
- Net Margin (%): 21.4 (2013), 23.5 (2014), 27.8 (2015F), 28.4 (2016F), 28.5 (2017F)
- ROE (%): 13.8 (2013), 17.1 (2014), 20.5 (2015F), 21.8 (2016F), 22.9 (2017F)
- Valuation/Recommendation:
- Maintain HOLD, target price: HK$3.30
- Entry price: HK$2.60
Xinchen China Power (1148 HK)
- Company Description: Manufacturer and seller of gasoline and diesel engines for passenger vehicles, mini-buses, and light duty commercial vehicles.
- Stock Data:
- GICS Sector: Automobile
- Bloomberg Ticker: 1148 HK
- Shares Issued: 1,287m
- Market Cap (HK$m): 3,811
- Market Cap (US$m): 492
- 3-mth Avg Daily Turnover (US$m): 0.9
- Price Performance:
- 52-week high/low: HK$5.2 / HK$2.2
- 1mth: -3.6%
- 3mth: +8.8%
- 6mth: -30.7%
- 1yr: -28.5%
- YTD: +21.3%
- Key Financials:
- Net turnover (Rmbm): 2,586 (2013), 2,652 (2014), 3,715 (2015F), 4,617 (2016F), 5,048 (2017F)
- EBITDA (Rmbm): 411 (2013), 404 (2014), 645 (2015F), 771 (2016F), 862 (2017F)
- Net Profit (Rmbm): 271 (2013), 272 (2014), 360 (2015F), 426 (2016F), 500 (2017F)
- EPS (Fen): 22.2 (2013), 21.1 (2014), 27.9 (2015F), 33.1 (2016F), 38.8 (2017F)
- PE (x): 12.4 (2013), 13.0 (2014), 10.3 (2015F), 8.7 (2016F), 7.4 (2017F)
- P/B (x): 1.6 (2013), 1.4 (2014), 1.2 (2015F), 1.1 (2016F), 1.1 (2017F)
- EV/EBITDA (x): 9.2 (2013), 9.3 (2014), 6.1 (2015F), 5.1 (2016F), 4.6 (2017F)
- Net Margin (%): 10.5 (2013), 10.2 (2014), 9.7 (2015F), 9.2 (2016F), 9.9 (2017F)
- ROE (%): 15.5 (2013), 11.7 (2014), 13.6 (2015F), 14.0 (2016F), 14.3 (2017F)
- Valuation/Recommendation:
- Maintain BUY, target price: HK$4.50
- Current share price: HK$3.44, with an upside of +30.8%
Corporate Events
| Event | Venue | Begin | Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pacific Radiance Luncheon | Singapore | 19 Jun | 19 Jun |
| M3 Marine Group Luncheon | Singapore | 25 Jun | 25 Jun |
Peer Comparison (Lijun International)
| Ticker | Company | 2014 Revenue (Rmbm) | YoY % Chg | Gross Margin (%) | Market Share (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 000242 CH | Sichuan Kelun | 6,191.6 | +8.6 | 30.3 | 44.2 |
| 600062 CH | China Resources | - | -4.3 | 33.0 | 18.3 |
| 2005 HK | Lijun International | 1,552.5 | +12.6 | 50.9 | 11.1 |
Earnings Risks
- Lower-than-expected tender prices and procurement prices of major products.
- Slower-than-expected opening of drug tenders and procurement programmes.
- Intensifying market competition.
- Possible failure of new product launches and market expansion.
Share Price Catalysts
- Drug tender programmes to bring market expansion opportunities.
- Potential M&As and new product launches to enrich product mix and fuel longer-term growth.
Conclusion
The report highlights the performance and outlook of key companies and sectors across several Asian markets. Lijun International faces margin pressures due to secondary price negotiations but is expected to benefit from tender wins in the second half of 2015. Xinchen China Power, on the other hand, is benefitting from a licensing agreement with BMW for the Prince Engine, which is expected to enhance its product mix and customer base, although earnings impact is not immediate. The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with a mix of BUY, HOLD, and SELL recommendations based on financial performance and future prospects.
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