20130531-IRENA-Southern_African_Power_Pool_Planning_and_Prospects_for_Renewable_Energy_96页_4mb

Summary

IRENA developed a System Planning Test (SPLAT) model to analyze renewable energy scenarios for Southern African countries. The model assesses transition pathways to renewable-oriented power systems, focusing on cost-effectiveness and reliability. Key findings include a projected increase in renewable energy share from 10% to 46% by 2030, supported by the Grand Inga hydro project and decreasing renewable costs. The Renewable Promotion scenario demonstrates lower average generation costs compared to fossil-fuel-heavy alternatives, driven by reduced fuel expenses and transmission savings. Deployment of distributed generation, particularly solar PV with storage, is expected to meet rural demand, while regional electricity trade enhances security and affordability. The analysis highlights that renewables can be economically integrated when combined with strategic infrastructure investments, supporting long-term energy access and sustainability goals. Further local validation and scenario exploration are recommended to refine regional planning.