20211014-IRENA-Renewable_Energy_Prospects_United_Arab_Emirates_64页_5mb

报告摘要

Renewable Energy Prospects: United Arab Emirates Report Summary

Executive Summary

This report concludes that renewable energy is now cost-competitive in the UAE, with a target of 10% renewable energy share in the total final energy consumption (TFEC) by 2030 yielding potential annual savings of USD 1.9 billion. Solar PV, wind, and waste-to-energy stand out as economically viable options. Key factors driving renewable competitiveness include the significant increase in natural gas prices (approaching USD 12-18/MBtu) coupled with dramatic reductions in solar PV costs (down ~75% since 2008). UAE's pioneering renewable initiatives position it as a regional leader in this energy transition.

Methodology

The analysis employs the REmap framework, evaluating technologies through cost-supply curves from both business and government perspectives. A substitution cost metric (USD/GJ) measures savings or costs of replacing conventional fuels. The renewable energy potential is assessed across power, industry, buildings, and transport sectors, with a 10% TFEC target serving as a benchmark to demonstrate key technology potentials.

Current Energy Situation

Energy Mix and Prices

The UAE's energy system remains heavily reliant on natural gas (~71% primary energy mix) and oil. Incremental gas costs rose sharply, from ~USD 2/MBtu in the past to ~USD 12-17/MBtu. Gas cogeneration provides ~80% of desalinated water tied to power generation.

Deployment Trends

Solar PV led renewable deployment (17 GW installed by 2020), with Dubai achieving world-record low LCOE (~5.98 cents/kWh). Conventional wisdom about renewable costs is being challenged, positioning the UAE for a transformative energy transition.

Policy Framework

Notable Initiatives

Solar water heating mandated for new buildings in Dubai
Development of Masdar Institute as a sustainability hub
Establishment of regulatory bodies like Dubai's Supreme Council of Energy
Renewable energy targets: 7% by 2020 (power sector)

Key Challenges

Governance fragmentation across emirates with limited coordination
Energy subsidies inhibiting competitive pricing
Decoupling of water and power pricing affecting desalination economics
Disaggregated decision-making preventing economy-wide optimization

Key Findings & Recommendations

REMAP 2030 Analysis

Achieving a 25% renewable share (~25 TWh) in electricity generation by 2030 is cost-effective
Deployment focus: Solar PV (27 GW), solar CSP (5.8 GW), wind (2 GW), waste-to-energy (800 MW)
Health/environmental benefits could reach USD 3.7 billion/year through avoided emissions
Major gas consumption reductions (~16%) would free resources for exports