2021-10-14-IRENA-Renewable_Energy_Prospects_for_Ukraine_53页_1mb

Renewable Energy Prospects for Ukraine: IRENA REmap 2030 Analysis

Background
Ukraine is analyzing renewable energy adoption to enhance energy security, reduce environmental impact, and support economic growth. The REmap 2030 project assesses deployment pathways to double the global renewable energy share by 2030. It builds on Ukraine's National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) and uses cost-supply curves from both government and business perspectives.

Current Energy Situation

• Energy Mix (2009): Renewable energy contributed 1–6% to final energy consumption (TFEC), with biomass as the primary source. Natural gas accounted for ~36% of energy supply.
• Power Sector: Generation of 189 TWh in 2009, dominated by coal (20%), nuclear (19%), and hydro (~6–7% of total).
• Heating/Transport: Biomass and district heat cover about 20% of heating needs; low uptake of renewables in transport.

Reference Case vs. REmap 2030

• Reference Case: By 2030, renewables' share in TFEC increases to ~13.2% (560 PJ). Wind and solar PV capacity expands modestly.
• REmap 2030: Renewable energy share reaches ~21.8% (872 PJ) by 2030. Biomass dominates (~76% of renewables), with significant growth in wind (12 GW), solar PV (8 GW), and biomass power plants.

Key Findings

1. Economic and Environmental Benefits:

   • Annual savings of ~USD 1.3 billion (excluding externalities) and up to USD 5.5 billion by 2030 due to reduced fossil fuel costs and CO₂ emissions.
   • Investment requirements increase from ~USD 2.5 billion (Reference Case) to ~USD 5.0 billion (REmap 2030).

2. Sectoral Breakdown (2030):

   • Power: Renewables share rises to 25% from ~11% in the Reference Case.
   • Heating/Biomass: Dominates residential and industrial sectors, providing ~22–27% of energy.
   • Transport: Biodiesel and bioethanol contribute ~7–11% of liquid fuel use.

3. Natural Gas Savings:

   • Gas demand reduces by 15% (Reference Case) or 50% (REmap 2030) through renewable substitution.

Barriers & Opportunities

• Challenges: High capital costs, unstable policies, lack of biomass supply chains, and grid integration issues.
• Opportunities: Expanding solar PV and wind onshore; utilizing biomass for heat and power; addressing affordability and supply logistics.

Conclusion
Ukraine holds significant renewable potential, particularly in biomass and wind. REmap 2030 suggests a 20–35% renewable energy share by 2030, requiring policy stability, investment certainty, and infrastructure upgrades.