2025-05-19-Jefferies-太阳能市场不温不火_终端需求萎缩；价格持续下跌_16页_1mb

报告摘要

Market Conditions: The solar market remains lukewarm due to declining end demand and falling prices across the value chain.
- Silicon Prices: N-/P-type polysilicon prices dropped to RMB38.6/31.3/kg (down 1.53%/3.1% month-over-month). High inventory in both upstream and downstream segments has weighed on prices.
- Wafers: M10/G12 N-type wafers saw price declines, ranging from 1.79% to 3.7% month-over-month.
- Cells/Modules: TOPCon cell (M10/G12) prices stabilized at RMB0.265-0.27/W, while module prices dropped to RMB0.68-0.69/W. Despite softening demand, some industry players increased procurement frequency to offset pricing power.
Inventory and Utilization Rates: Inventory days increased for solar glass and silicon, with sector-wide utilization rates remaining elevated but downward pressure on margins.
Component Prices: EVA/POE and silver paste prices have retreated, reflecting weakening demand; however, solar glass prices have slightly improved MoM.
Forward Outlook: Weak end demand persists, but factors like supply chain constraints (e.g., U.S. tariffs) and inventory levels are expected to limit further price declines.

U.S. tariffs and trade policies remain a concern for financial-end-of-construction (FEOC) scenarios, while IRA policy changes are yet to be formalized. SolarEdge (SEDG), First Solar (FSLR), and Chinese OEMs with SEA plants continue to monitor these developments closely.

ESS Market: Strong growth in module shipments has driven margin expansion for key players like Sungrow, with plans for ESS capacity expansion to 10GWh, though U.S. market disruption is a concern.
Silver Paste Pricing: Silver paste prices averaged RMB8,444/4,600/kg (front/back) and remain attractive for high-ARU ratios.

Indoor Vertical Takeoff (eVTOL): China is leading global innovation, with EHang pioneering UAM via vertical takeoff. Side-by-side comparison of eVTOLs (multirotor, tiltrotor) suggests long-term TAM >USD1.9T by 2050.
Supply Chain: Key market adoption hurdles include certification and component standardization for airframe materials, energy storage, motors, and power electronics.

Buy Recommendations: Distributed to several ETFs and stocks (NOT 300750 CH, EH, FSLR, EH, First Solar BUY) for growth/leveraged plays.
Hold/Underperform: For FSLR and segment-specific players in America and related markets.
Major Clients: JKS, Jinko, and HDF First, with firm analyst certification and transaction acceptance criteria in place.