IMF-美国经济新闻和货币政策对新兴市场的影响（英）-2023.5-36页_1mb

U.S. economic news and monetary policy have significant spillover effects on emerging markets. Employment news has the strongest impact, followed by news on economic activity and COVID-19 vaccines, while inflation news has limited effects. The primary transmission channel is through risk perceptions and risk aversion of international investors, with riskier emerging markets experiencing deeper spillovers. U.S. monetary policy spillovers have increased during financial crises, such as the global financial crisis, but not due to secular trends like integration. Flexible exchange rate regimes do not provide insulation from these effects, contrary to some theories. Additionally, the spillover of U.S. monetary policy depends on the reaction of U.S. stock prices: stronger effects occur when stocks and policy move oppositely, and no clear effect when they move together. Overall, U.S. news and policy act as fundamental risk factors for emerging market assets, supporting views that good U.S. economic news can have benign implications for emerging markets, but further research is needed to explore long-term effects and frictions like foreign currency invoicing.