亚开行-新兴市场的货币政策与企业生产力（英）-2025.7_25页_1mb

Monetary Policy and Corporate Productivity in Emerging Markets

This paper examines the effect of monetary policy shocks on firm-level productivity in 30 emerging economies (EMEs) using panel local projections and firm-level data from 2000–2023. The study finds that contractionary monetary policy shocks significantly reduce productivity, especially among firms with high financial frictions, low market power, younger firms, and those in vulnerable sectors like services. These firms experience deeper and longer-lasting productivity losses. Expansionary monetary policy shocks do not show corresponding productivity gains, underscoring an asymmetric effect. The findings highlight the role of financial frictions in amplifying the impact of monetary policy on productivity.

Key Findings

1. Contractionary Shocks:

   • Tightening policy leads to a significant and persistent decline in productivity.
   • Peak effect is a 0.3% decrease immediately after the shock, lasting up to 4 years.
   • High financial friction amplifies these losses (e.g., 0.44% vs. 0.25% in low friction firms).

2. Heterogeneous Responses:

   • Firms with lower market power, high financial frictions, younger age, or in sectors like services face amplified losses.
   • High financial friction and policies restricting credit, particularly affecting the younger, low-power firms, drive these asymmetries.

3. Asymmetric Effects:

   • Contractionary shocks (tightening) cause substantial, irreversible productivity losses.
   • Expansionary shocks have no offsetting gains, highlighting the irreversibility of damage.

Methodology

• Data: Firm-level dataset spanning 32 EMEs, using the ratio of cash reserves to assets as a proxy for financial frictions.
• Technique: Panel local projections with forward-looking Taylor rules to isolate exogenous shocks.
• Productivity: Measured via total factor productivity (TFP).

Policy Implications

• Central banks should consider financial heterogeneity to mitigate productivity slowdowns.
• Policies aimed at reducing financial frictions (e.g., improved access to credit) are crucial for offsetting monetary tightening side effects.

Conclusion
Monetary policy significantly impacts highly constrained firms, leading to amplified, asymmetric, and persistent productivity declines. Alleviating financial constraints is vital for sustaining resilience during monetary tightening.