IMF-美元汇率波动与新兴市场生产率增长：来自企业层面数据的证据（英）-2023.5-45页

The study examines the impact of dollar exchange rate volatility on firm productivity growth in 16 emerging markets using firm-level data from 1998 to 2019. Key findings include a delayed negative effect of volatility on productivity, with a one-year lag, driven by financial constraints, trade dynamics, wage rigidities, and capital account openness. Dollar invoicing, bilateral trade with the US, and open capital accounts amplify these effects, while foreign exchange interventions mitigate them. Financial friction reduces investment, particularly in firms with low liquidity or high leverage, and the real options channel highlights persistent impacts on firms with irreversible investments. The results are robust to various tests, including instrumental variable approaches. This underscores the importance of uncertainty in EMs and suggests policy interventions to manage volatility for fostering productivity.