2016年-数据局_德勤：2016年科技传媒和电信行业预测_84页_4mb

Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions Summary (2016)

Core Content Overview

The 2016 edition of Deloitte Global's Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Predictions outlines key trends and challenges across the sector, focusing on gender diversity in IT, the role of PCs among millennials, the growth of mobile commerce, and emerging technologies such as graphene and virtual reality.

Main Predictions and Trends

Technology

• Women in IT jobs: Deloitte predicts that by the end of 2016, fewer than 25% of IT jobs in developed countries will be held by women. This figure has remained relatively stable over the past few years, indicating a persistent gender gap.
• Education pipeline: The underrepresentation of women in IT is partly due to a lack of female participation in computer science and related fields at the educational level. For example, in 2013, only 18% of US computer science graduates were women, a decline from 37% in 1985.
• Recruitment and hiring: Despite efforts to increase diversity, unconscious biases and gender-neutral job descriptions may still hinder the hiring of women. Companies are advised to consider diverse hiring panels and ask more detailed questions during interviews.
• Retention challenges: Women in IT are more likely to leave their jobs in the first year, with factors such as pay inequality, promotion bias, and a hostile work culture contributing to this issue. Initiatives like mentoring and flexible maternity leave are being explored to improve retention.
• Paying and promoting: There is a significant pay gap, with women earning about 79 cents for every dollar earned by men in the same roles. Encouraging women to self-nominate for promotions is one strategy being used to address this.
• Government role: Public sector IT jobs tend to be more diverse than private sector roles. Government-led initiatives could help improve gender diversity in the IT workforce.

Media

• Virtual reality: VR is expected to gain commercial traction in 2016, though it remains a niche market.
• Mobile games: Mobile gaming is leading in terms of user engagement, but not yet in revenue. It is predicted to become the largest games platform by 2016, surpassing consoles and PCs.
• Ad-blockers: Mobile ad-blockers are a challenge for advertisers, but they may be mitigated by the rise of in-app advertising.
• TV and cinema: Despite digital media, traditional media such as TV and cinema continue to hold their own in terms of revenue and audience.
• Sports and eSports: Premium sports, especially football in Europe, are expected to generate over $30 billion in revenue. eSports is also growing, though its scale and impact remain debated.

Telecommunications

• Gigabit Internet: The rise of high-speed internet services is expected to drive demand for more data-intensive applications.
• Used smartphones: The market for used smartphones is predicted to exceed $17 billion in trade-in value, indicating strong consumer demand.
• Data exclusives: There is a growing trend of users who exclusively use data networks, rather than traditional wired or wireless connections.
• VoLTE/VoWiFi: These technologies are expected to improve voice services over data networks, increasing capacity and reach.
• Photo sharing: The trend of photo sharing is expected to continue and expand, with potential for massive data consumption.

Key Insights

• Gender diversity in IT is a long-standing issue, influenced by educational pipelines, hiring practices, and workplace culture.
• Trailing millennials (18-24 years old) are predicted to be the most pro-PC generation, using laptops more than smartphones in many developed countries.
• PC usage among millennials remains high, with laptops being a preferred device for tasks such as content creation and longer-form media consumption.
• Mobile commerce is advancing, with touch commerce offering a faster checkout experience.
• Emerging technologies like graphene and cognitive technologies are expected to have a significant impact in the coming years.
• Media consumption is shifting towards mobile devices, but traditional media like TV and cinema are still relevant.
• Telecom growth is driven by faster internet, data exclusives, and new voice services over data networks.

Conclusion

The TMT sector continues to evolve rapidly, with both opportunities and challenges. While digital transformation is reshaping media and telecom landscapes, the persistence of gender inequality in IT suggests that broader cultural and systemic changes are needed to ensure inclusivity. Millennials, despite being the digital generation, still show strong reliance on PCs, indicating that the post-PC era may be a longer-term trend than previously anticipated.