2016年-德勤全球_Cognitive_technologies_enhance_enterprise_software_84页_4mb

Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions Summary (2016)

Core Content Overview

This document outlines key predictions and trends for the Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) sectors in 2016, focusing on areas such as gender diversity in IT, the role of PCs among millennials, and the evolution of digital technologies and services. It also touches on the growth of virtual reality, mobile gaming, ad-blockers, and the expanding used smartphone market.

Main Predictions and Trends

1. Gender Diversity in IT Jobs

• Deloitte Global predicts that by the end of 2016, fewer than 25% of IT jobs in developed countries will be held by women.
• The gender gap in IT persists despite efforts, with women being underrepresented in both entry-level and senior roles.
• The pay gap remains significant, with women earning about 79 cents for every dollar earned by men in similar roles.
• The percentage of women in tech roles has slightly increased in some countries (e.g., UK, Canada), but progress is slow.

Education Pipeline

• Female representation in computer science and related fields is low, with only 18% of US CS graduates being women in 2013.
• Similar trends are observed in the UK and Canada, though Canada shows a slightly higher percentage.
• The issue begins at the primary school level, with girls often steered away from STEM subjects.

Challenges in Recruitment and Hiring

• Job descriptions and online recruitment algorithms may unintentionally discourage women from applying.
• Unconscious bias plays a role in hiring decisions, with both men and women more likely to hire men for IT roles.
• Women are less likely to promote themselves in interviews, leading to fewer promotions.

Retention and Promotion

• Women in IT are more likely to leave their jobs in the first year compared to men.
• Workplace policies that do not accommodate family needs (e.g., maternity leave, childcare) may contribute to this.
• Mentoring programs and support from senior women can improve retention.

Pay and Promotion

• Encouraging women to self-nominate for promotions has led to more equitable outcomes in some companies.
• Government-led initiatives in public sector IT employment show promise in improving gender diversity, as public sector employment of women is more diverse than private sector employment.

2. Trailing Millennials: Pro-PC, Not Post-PC

• Trailing millennials (18-24 years old) are more pro-PC than post-PC, using laptops more frequently than smartphones.
• Over 85% of trailing millennials in 13 developed countries had access to a laptop in 2015, slightly lower than smartphone access.
• Laptops are seen as complementary to smartphones, with millennials using both devices.
• They are more likely to use laptops for tasks like content creation, longer-form video, and work/study applications.
• Mobile-first behavior is evident, with millennials spending significantly more time on mobile devices than on laptops, but not abandoning PCs.

3. Technology and Media Trends

• Cognitive Technologies: Enhance enterprise software, leading to more efficient and intelligent systems.
• Touch Commerce: Mobile checkout becomes faster and more prominent, improving the shopping experience.
• Graphene: Research in this material is expected to yield significant benefits in the next decade.
• Virtual Reality: Expected to become a major market, with potential for growth in premium sports and eSports.
• Mobile Ad-Blockers: May mitigate the impact on mobile advertising revenue, though the trend is still evolving.
• Gigabit Internet: Becoming more accessible, driving new services and applications.
• Photo Sharing: Expected to grow rapidly, contributing to increased data usage.
• Used Smartphone Market: Projected to surpass $17 billion in trade-in value, indicating a significant consumer market.

Key Insights

• The TMT sector has seen remarkable innovation over the past 15 years, but challenges in gender diversity remain.
• While millennials are the most connected generation, they are not moving away from PCs.
• The used smartphone market is expanding, showing the continued value and demand for second-hand devices.
• Tech companies are leading in gender diversity initiatives, but progress is uneven across the industry and countries.

Conclusion

The 2016 TMT predictions highlight the importance of addressing gender disparities in IT through education, recruitment, retention, and pay equity. They also emphasize the continued relevance of PCs, especially among millennials, and the growing influence of mobile technology across various sectors. As the sector evolves, understanding and adapting to these trends will be crucial for businesses and policymakers alike.