2025-01-02-德勤-2025年技术_媒体与电信（TMT）预测报告_132页_4mb

TMT Predictions 2025: Summary

Core Content Overview

Deloitte's 2025 TMT Predictions highlight a pivotal year for the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sector, marked by a series of "gaps" that must be addressed to fully realize the potential of generative AI (gen AI) and other emerging technologies. The report also introduces new trends and revisits past predictions, offering a comprehensive view of the industry's trajectory.

Main Topics and Key Predictions

1. The "Gap Year" for Gen AI and TMT

• Gen AI Infrastructure and Monetization Gap: Companies are investing heavily in gen AI infrastructure (chips, data centers), but returns are not yet matching the investment. The gap is expected to persist in 2025.
• Gen AI Data Center Electricity and Sustainability Gap: Data centers require significant power, creating a challenge for sustainable energy supply. Efforts by hyperscalers and utilities are ongoing but may not fully close the gap.
• Gen AI Gender Gap: Women's adoption of gen AI is accelerating, with Deloitte predicting parity in the U.S. by year-end 2025 and in many European countries within 1-2 years. However, a trust gap remains, with women less confident in data security and AI bias.
• Gen AI Deepfake Trust Gap: The proliferation of deepfake content threatens consumer trust. The industry needs to implement comprehensive and immutable labeling of AI-generated content and improve real-time detection capabilities.
• Studio Gen AI Usage Gap: Large studios are cautious about adopting gen AI in creative workflows, with less than 3% of production budgets allocated to these tools. However, they are more willing to use gen AI for operational functions like contract management and localization.
• Autonomous Gen AI Agent Gap: Agentic AI pilots are expected to increase, with 25% of gen AI users launching such pilots in 2025 and 50% by 2027. These agents could enhance productivity and workflow efficiency.
• Streaming Video Gap: Consumer subscription numbers are expected to peak and decline, leading to increased aggregation of content by intermediaries to create a more sustainable streaming ecosystem.
• Cloud Spending Gap: Cloud costs are often not well-controlled, and Deloitte predicts that more companies will adopt FinOps strategies to optimize spending and improve cloud unit economics.

2. New Predictions and Trends

• On-Device Generative AI: Smartphones with on-device gen AI capabilities are expected to see a modest increase in shipments (7% growth in 2025). These features will test the value of AI in consumer devices.
• Wireless Telecom Consolidation: Consolidation of wireless telecom providers is expected to accelerate in 2025, especially in markets where regulators allow it, to create a more sustainable ecosystem.
• Fixed Wireless Access (FWA): Despite a slowdown in U.S. FWA growth, global FWA adoption is expected to rise by 20% annually in 2025 and 2026, driven by new enterprise applications.
• 5G Standalone (SA) Delay: Deployment of 5G SA networks is progressing slowly, and 6G may face further delays due to ROI concerns.
• Open RAN: Open RAN adoption is slower than anticipated, with only two multivendor networks globally as of March 2024. No new multivendor networks are expected in 2025.
• Quantum Cybersecurity: The threat of quantum attacks has reached a tipping point, prompting companies to invest in post-quantum cryptography. Deloitte predicts a quadrupling of companies and spending on this technology by 2025.
• RISC-V and Geopolitical Risks: RISC-V chips are gaining traction, but U.S. export restrictions may limit their use in markets under sanctions. This could affect gen AI server development.
• B/OSS Modernization: Telcos are modernizing their business and operational support systems (B/OSS) through cloud-based and SaaS solutions, with the global B/OSS market expected to reach $70 billion by 2025.
• Silicon Photonics: Demand for silicon photonics chips is rising, especially in gen AI data centers, where they enable faster communication, lower energy consumption, and reduced heat.

Updates and Revisions

Deloitte revisits seven previous predictions to assess their accuracy and current relevance:

• Gen AI on the Enterprise Edge: On-prem AI infrastructure is still growing, with over half of enterprises expected to add on-prem AI data centers by 2025.
• Women's Sports Investment: Women's sports revenue is growing, attracting new investors and creating opportunities for strategic growth and commercial development.
• 5G Standalone and 6G Delays: Deloitte's earlier predictions about 5G SA growth have not materialized, and 6G may be delayed further.
• Open RAN Growth: Open RAN adoption is slower than anticipated, with limited multivendor networks globally.
• Quantum Cybersecurity: The need for quantum-resistant systems is becoming urgent, with companies expected to invest significantly in post-quantum cryptography.
• RISC-V and Geopolitical Constraints: RISC-V is gaining popularity but faces export restrictions in the U.S., which could impact its use in gen AI.
• B/OSS Market Growth: The B/OSS market is expected to grow to $70 billion by 2025, with cloud and SaaS solutions leading the way.

Rising Trends

• Gen AI and Cybersecurity: Gen AI presents both risks and opportunities in cybersecurity. Threat actors are using it for attacks, but defenders are also exploring its potential for enhanced security solutions.
• Chiplets and Moore’s Law: Chiplets are expected to drive growth in advanced packaging, helping the semiconductor industry maintain performance and yield improvements.
• Silicon Photonics: Silicon photonics will play a key role in gen AI data centers, enabling faster and more efficient data transfer.

Key Takeaways

• The TMT sector is at a critical juncture, with gen AI driving innovation but facing significant challenges in infrastructure, trust, and adoption.
• Addressing these gaps is essential for long-term growth and sustainability.
• New trends like B/OSS modernization, silicon photonics, and chiplets are shaping the future of the industry.
• The gender gap in gen AI adoption is closing rapidly, but trust remains a key barrier.
• Regulatory and geopolitical factors will influence the adoption of emerging technologies, particularly in the semiconductor and telecom sectors.

Conclusion

Deloitte's 2025 TMT Predictions emphasize the importance of addressing the identified gaps and embracing new trends to ensure the industry's continued evolution. The report underscores the need for trust, inclusivity, and sustainability as core values in the development and deployment of gen AI and related technologies.