2021-09-30-亚开行-亚洲及太平洋区域全面经济伙伴关系的经济影响（英）_34页_860kb

ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF THE REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

Cyn-Young Park, Peter A. Petri, and Michael G. Plummer of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) analyzed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Their study reveals that the RCEP, the world's largest free trade area by GDP and population, is expected to generate substantial economic benefits.

Key findings include:
• The RCEP will increase global income by 0.6% (equivalent to $245 billion annually) and boost regional employment by 2.8 million by 2030.
• Its potential gains nearly double those of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
• Trade in intermediate goods drives most impacts, with manufacturing sectors experiencing significant gains.
• Reductions in non-tariff barriers contribute more than tariffs or rules of origin to RCEP's economic benefits.
• Labor market flexibility, particularly in lower-income countries, amplifies the agreement's effects.

The study emphasizes the importance of effective implementation, especially addressing non-tariff barriers and adhering to rules of origin. Park, Petri, and Plummer conclude that the RCEP strengthens regional integration and positions Asia-Pacific countries as key players in the global economy.

The authors highlight that while the RCEP is comprehensive, it is also inclusive and outward-oriented, potentially setting the stage for broader economic cooperation in Asia-Pacific and beyond.