20260319-招银国际-金蝶国际-00268.HK-Committed_to_AI_transformation_7页_689kb

Kingdee (268 HK) Summary

Core Content

Kingdee, a leading Chinese software and IT services company, has demonstrated its commitment to AI transformation and business innovation. In 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB7.0bn, reflecting a 12.0% YoY growth, which aligns with the Bloomberg consensus. However, net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders came in at RMB92.9mn, below the Bloomberg forecast of RMB132mn. Despite this, the company's performance highlights its ability to achieve healthy revenue growth and improve operating efficiency.

Key Financial Highlights

• Revenue:

  • 2023A: RMB5,679mn
  • 2024A: RMB6,256mn (+10.2% YoY)
  • 2025A: RMB7,006mn (+12.0% YoY)
  • 2026E: RMB7,948mn (+13.4% YoY)
  • 2027E: RMB8,941mn (+12.5% YoY)
  • 2028E: RMB9,862mn (+10.3% YoY)

• Net Profit:

  • 2023A: RMB(210)mn
  • 2024A: RMB(142)mn
  • 2025A: RMB93mn
  • 2026E: RMB448mn (+382% YoY)
  • 2027E: RMB709mn (+58.3% YoY)
  • 2028E: RMB1,046mn (+47.5% YoY)

• EPS (Reported):

  • 2023A: RMB(3.96) cents
  • 2024A: RMB(2.62) cents
  • 2025A: RMB(2.62) cents
  • 2026E: RMB(0.13) cents
  • 2027E: RMB(0.20) cents
  • 2028E: RMB(0.30) cents

• Consensus EPS:

  • 2026E: RMB(0.11) cents
  • 2027E: RMB(0.19) cents
  • 2028E: RMB(0.47) cents

AI Transformation and Performance

• Cloud Revenue:

  • 2025: RMB5.8bn (+13.2% YoY), accounting for 82.5% of total revenue
  • ARR Growth: +19.2% YoY
  • Subscription Contract Liabilities: +20.7% YoY to RMB1.5bn

• AI Adoption:

  • Kingdee AI achieved contract value of c. RMB356mn in 2025
  • AI-assisted new code accounted for 41% of total new code in 2025, with an expected increase to 70% in 2026
  • Headcount and R&D headcount declined by 7.0% and 13.6% YoY in 2025, respectively

2026 Guidance

• Group Revenue: Double-digit YoY growth
• Kingdee AI Suite Revenue: Exceed RMB1bn
• Adj. Net Margin: Expected to rise to ~7% (from 3.3% in 2025)
• OCF Growth: Over 20% YoY
• Share Repurchases: Over HK$500mn (c. 1.4% of market cap)

Valuation and Forecast

• Target Price (2026E): HK$15.10 (Previously: HK$19.20)
• EV/Sales Multiple: Lowered from 8.4x to 5.4x to reflect market sentiment
• Revenue Forecasts:
  • 2026E: RMB7,948mn (revised down by 2%)
  • 2027E: RMB8,941mn (revised down by 1%)
• Net Profit Forecasts:
  • 2026E: RMB448mn (+29% YoY)
  • 2027E: RMB709mn (+28% YoY)

Profitability Metrics

• Gross Profit Margin:

  • 2023A: 64.2%
  • 2024A: 65.1%
  • 2025A: 67.1%
  • 2026E: 68.1%
  • 2027E: 69.1%
  • 2028E: 70.1%

• Operating Margin:

  • 2023A: (10.7%)
  • 2024A: (7.8%)
  • 2025A: (2.3%)
  • 2026E: 2.3%
  • 2027E: 5.7%
  • 2028E: 8.9%

• ROE:

  • 2023A: (2.6%)
  • 2024A: (1.7%)
  • 2025A: 1.1%
  • 2026E: 5.3%
  • 2027E: 7.9%
  • 2028E: 10.6%

Shareholding and Market Performance

• Market Cap: HK$35,422.7mn

• Shareholding Structure:

  • Oriental Tao Limited: 10.9%
  • Billion Tao Limited: 8.3%

• Share Performance:

  • 1-mth: -10.2%
  • 3-mth: -26.8%
  • 6-mth: -40.6%

Analyst Ratings

• CMBIGM Rating: BUY
• Target Price: HK$15.10
• Up/Downside: 50.7%
• Current Price: HK$10.02

Risks

• Slower-than-expected revenue growth
• Slower-than-expected margin expansion
• More intensified-than-expected industry competition

Conclusion

Despite the net profit shortfall in 2025, Kingdee has shown strong progress in AI transformation, cloud revenue growth, and operating efficiency. The company is positioned to benefit from the AI application era, with clear growth trajectories and a focus on cost-effective AI integration. While short-term market sentiment may be affected by competition from large language model (LLM) companies, the firm's strategic direction and financial performance suggest it remains a top pick in the China software coverage universe.