20260504-招银国际-Expanding_from_per-user_model_into_user-plus-usage_model_8页_814kb

Microsoft (MSFT US) Summary

Core Content

Microsoft reported its 3QFY26 results, highlighting strong financial performance across all business segments. Revenue reached US$82.9 billion, up 18.3% YoY, surpassing both the analyst's forecast and Bloomberg's consensus. Operating income increased 20% YoY to US$38.4 billion, with the company guiding for continued growth in the coming quarters.

Main Points

• Revenue Growth:

  • 3QFY26 revenue growth was 18.3% YoY, outperforming expectations.
  • Azure and cloud services revenue grew 40% YoY, exceeding the previous guidance of 37-38%.
  • Management expects 39-40% growth in Azure for 4QFY26.

• Segment Performance:

  • Productivity and Business Processes (PBP) revenue was US$35.0 billion, up 16.9% YoY.
  • Intelligent Cloud (IC) revenue grew 29.6% YoY to US$34.7 billion, contributing 42% of total revenue.
  • More Personal Computing (MPC) revenue was US$13.2 billion, representing 15.9% of total revenue.

• Pricing Model Shift:

  • Microsoft is transitioning from a per-user model to a user-plus-usage model, particularly for GitHub Copilot.
  • This shift is expected to improve monetization and reduce market concerns over pricing.

• Operating Margin (OPM):

  • OPM for 3QFY26 was 46.3%, up 0.8 ppts YoY and 0.3 ppts above the consensus.
  • PBP and MPC segments showed improved margins, while IC margin declined slightly to 39.7%.

• Forecast and Valuation:

  • Revenue and operating income growth are expected to remain in double digits for FY27.
  • The target price was revised to US$616.40, translating into a 31.5x FY27E PE.
  • DCF valuation is based on a WACC of 7.9% and terminal growth of 3%.

Key Financial Metrics

• Revenue (3QFY26): US$82.9 billion (+18.3% YoY)
• Operating Income (3QFY26): US$38.4 billion (+20% YoY)
• Gross Profit (3QFY26): US$56.1 billion (+16.4% YoY)
• Net Profit (3QFY26): US$31.8 billion (+23.1% YoY)
• GPM (3QFY26): 67.6% (-0.1 ppts YoY)
• OPM (3QFY26): 46.3% (+0.8 ppts YoY)

Shareholding and Performance

• Market Cap: US$3.04 trillion
• Share Performance (12-month):
  • Absolute: -21.2%
  • Relative: -24.9%
• Top Shareholders:
  • Vanguard Group: 9.4%
  • Blackrock: 8.0%

Earnings Summary

Capex and Financial Outlook

• Capex (3QFY26): US$31.9 billion (+49% YoY), with two-thirds allocated to short-lived assets like GPUs and CPUs.
• Guidance for 4QFY26 / CY2026: Over US$40 billion in Capex, considering higher component pricing and finance leases.
• Expected Growth:
  • Revenue: 15.8% / 14.5% YoY for FY27
  • Operating Income: 14.5% YoY for FY27

Risks

• Slower-than-expected margin expansion
• Slower-than-expected revenue contribution from AI-related services

Analyst Ratings

• BUY (Maintain): Stock with potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.
• Target Price: US$616.40
• Current Price: US$407.78
• Up/Downside: 51.2%

Valuation Metrics

• P/E (FY27E): 20.8
• P/B (FY26E): 7.1
• P/CFPS (FY26E): 181.8

Summary Table

Conclusion

Microsoft continues to demonstrate robust financial performance, with strong cloud growth and a strategic shift toward a usage-based pricing model. The company's revenue and operating income are expected to grow in the coming years, and the target price remains at US$616.40, reflecting confidence in its long-term potential. Despite some margin pressures and potential risks, the BUY rating is maintained.