> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Microsoft (MSFT US) Summary ## Core Content Microsoft reported its 3QFY26 results, highlighting strong financial performance across all business segments. Revenue reached **US$82.9 billion**, up **18.3% YoY**, surpassing both the analyst's forecast and Bloomberg's consensus. Operating income increased **20% YoY** to **US$38.4 billion**, with the company guiding for continued growth in the coming quarters. ## Main Points - **Revenue Growth**: - 3QFY26 revenue growth was **18.3% YoY**, outperforming expectations. - **Azure and cloud services** revenue grew **40% YoY**, exceeding the previous guidance of 37-38%. - Management expects **39-40% growth** in Azure for 4QFY26. - **Segment Performance**: - **Productivity and Business Processes (PBP)** revenue was **US$35.0 billion**, up **16.9% YoY**. - **Intelligent Cloud (IC)** revenue grew **29.6% YoY** to **US$34.7 billion**, contributing **42%** of total revenue. - **More Personal Computing (MPC)** revenue was **US$13.2 billion**, representing **15.9%** of total revenue. - **Pricing Model Shift**: - Microsoft is transitioning from a **per-user model** to a **user-plus-usage model**, particularly for **GitHub Copilot**. - This shift is expected to improve monetization and reduce market concerns over pricing. - **Operating Margin (OPM)**: - OPM for 3QFY26 was **46.3%**, up **0.8 ppts YoY** and **0.3 ppts** above the consensus. - **PBP** and **MPC** segments showed improved margins, while **IC** margin declined slightly to **39.7%**. - **Forecast and Valuation**: - Revenue and operating income growth are expected to remain in **double digits** for FY27. - The **target price** was revised to **US$616.40**, translating into a **31.5x FY27E PE**. - **DCF valuation** is based on a **WACC of 7.9%** and **terminal growth of 3%**. ## Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue (3QFY26)**: US$82.9 billion (+18.3% YoY) - **Operating Income (3QFY26)**: US$38.4 billion (+20% YoY) - **Gross Profit (3QFY26)**: US$56.1 billion (+16.4% YoY) - **Net Profit (3QFY26)**: US$31.8 billion (+23.1% YoY) - **GPM (3QFY26)**: 67.6% (-0.1 ppts YoY) - **OPM (3QFY26)**: 46.3% (+0.8 ppts YoY) ## Shareholding and Performance - **Market Cap**: US$3.04 trillion - **Share Performance (12-month)**: - Absolute: **-21.2%** - Relative: **-24.9%** - **Top Shareholders**: - **Vanguard Group**: 9.4% - **Blackrock**: 8.0% ## Earnings Summary | Year | Revenue (US$ mn) | YoY Growth (%) | Net Profit (US$ mn) | YoY Growth (%) | EPS (Reported) | Consensus EPS | P/E (x) | |------|------------------|----------------|---------------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|--------| | FY24A| 245,122 | 14.9 | 101,832.0 | 15.5 | 13.70 | 13.64 | 29.8 | | FY25A| 281,724 | 14.9 | 129,397.0 | 27.1 | 17.40 | 16.74 | 23.4 | | FY26E| 329,334 | 16.9 | 146,079.1 | 12.9 | 19.64 | 18.96 | 20.8 | | FY27E| 381,504 | 15.8 | 165,849.3 | 13.5 | 22.29 | 22.26 | 18.3 | ## Capex and Financial Outlook - **Capex (3QFY26)**: US$31.9 billion (+49% YoY), with two-thirds allocated to **short-lived assets** like GPUs and CPUs. - **Guidance for 4QFY26 / CY2026**: Over **US$40 billion** in Capex, considering higher component pricing and finance leases. - **Expected Growth**: - Revenue: **15.8% / 14.5% YoY** for FY27 - Operating Income: **14.5% YoY** for FY27 ## Risks - **Slower-than-expected margin expansion** - **Slower-than-expected revenue contribution from AI-related services** ## Analyst Ratings - **BUY (Maintain)**: Stock with potential return of over **15%** over the next 12 months. - **Target Price**: **US$616.40** - **Current Price**: **US$407.78** - **Up/Downside**: **51.2%** ## Valuation Metrics - **P/E (FY27E)**: **20.8** - **P/B (FY26E)**: **7.1** - **P/CFPS (FY26E)**: **181.8** ## Summary Table | Metric | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |--------|------|-------|--------| | Revenue (US$ bn) | 329.3 | 381.5 | 437.0 | | Gross Profit (US$ bn) | 223.0 | 255.2 | 290.2 | | Operating Profit (US$ bn) | 153.5 | 175.7 | 199.9 | | Net Profit (US$ bn) | 129.4 | 146.1 | 165.8 | | OPM (%) | 46.6 | 46.1 | 45.7 | | NPM (%) | 39.3 | 38.3 | 38.0 | | P/E (x) | 23.4 | 20.8 | 18.3 | ## Conclusion Microsoft continues to demonstrate robust financial performance, with strong cloud growth and a strategic shift toward a usage-based pricing model. The company's revenue and operating income are expected to grow in the coming years, and the target price remains at **US$616.40**, reflecting confidence in its long-term potential. Despite some margin pressures and potential risks, the **BUY** rating is maintained.