世界银行-北马其顿气候-公共财政评论：将气候变化观点纳入财政政策（英）-2024.6-80页_2mb

North Macedonia Climate Public Finance Review Summary

This report examines climate change impacts on North Macedonia's economy and public finances and identifies strategic fiscal policy priorities to mitigate risks and support climate objectives. Key challenges include rising public debt, fiscal space constraints, and exposure to both physical (extreme weather events) and transition risks (global low-carbon shift). The country is projected to face heightened climate risks in the coming decades, potentially increasing asset losses, contingent liabilities, and reducing macro-fiscal sustainability.

Major findings highlight a significant gap between financial needs and current climate investments—almost EUR 25 billion by 2030 and EUR 50 billion by 2050. Public finances are strained due to historic reliance on energy-intensive industries and inadequate environmental fiscal reforms. Opportunities exist through carbon pricing, which could generate substantial revenue (~EUR 700 million annually) and foster a green transition. Fiscal reforms recommendations include:

• Carbon Pricing: Crucial to managing transition risks, aligning with EU's carbon border adjustment mechanisms.
• Vehicle and Fuel Tax Reforms: Increasing domestic carbon signals via taxes and removing fossil fuel subsidies.
• Just Transition: Investing in education, vocational training, and social protection for affected workers.
• Green Public Procurement & Budget Tagging: Mainstreaming climate considerations in public spending.

Addressing physical risks requires disaster risk financing, resilient infrastructure investments (~EUR 6.5 billion over the period 2020-2050 possible), and contingent funds. Financing gaps must be bridged by blending EU funds (e.g., IPA grants), private sector investment (blended finance), and innovative tools like green bonds. Revenue recycling is suggested to offset energy price hikes through targeted transfers or subsidies.

The medium-term economic forecast anticipates moderate growth but caution is needed as climate policies escalate. Tax base diversification and improved fiscal accounting for climate impacts are vital for maintaining sustainability and facilitating EU accession. Strengthening institutional capacities and enhancing cross-sectoral coordination are matters of priority.

Ultimately, fiscal policy can play a critical role in managing climate risks by incentivizing clean investments, raising revenue, and enabling a just and equitable transition while enhancing macroeconomic stability.