2025-03-16-世界银行-津巴布韦公共财政评论_通过财政政策锚定宏观经济稳定（英）_118页_8mb

报告摘要

Summary of Zimbabwe Public Finance Review: Anchoring Macroeconomic Stability Through Fiscal Policy

This report examines Zimbabwe's fiscal challenges and opportunities for achieving medium-term fiscal stability and supporting macroeconomic stabilization. Key findings and recommendations include:

1. Macroeconomic Context and Fiscal Deficits

Zimbabwe faces a significant fiscal deficit driven by high public debt and quasi-fiscal operations (QFOs) by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe.
The country's macroeconomic instability contributes to high inflation, currency depreciation, and erosion of tax revenue.
The Structured Dialogue Platform (SDP) aims to address external debt arrears and promote fiscal reforms.

2. Revenue Mobilization Potential

VAT Reforms: The 2024 budget proposes narrowing exemptions, potentially increasing revenue by 0.88% of GDP.
CIT Rationalization: Streamlining corporate tax incentives is needed to reduce distortions and improve revenue collection.
Mining Tax Reforms: Strengthening anti-evasion measures could boost CIT and mining royalty collections by 20-30% and 2-10% respectively.

3. Expenditure Rationalization

Wage Bill: Eliminating redundant positions could save ~0.3% of GDP; stronger wage negotiation frameworks are needed.
Procurement: Implementing e-procurement and value-for-money principles could unlock savings of 0.8-0.9% of GDP.
Public Investment: Strengthening project appraisal and risk management could reduce costs and delays.

4. Fiscal Consolidation Strategy

A medium-term consolidation path could achieve 3.3-7.2% of GDP in revenue gains through tax reforms and expenditure savings.
Domestic revenue mobilization should be the primary focus, complemented by careful expenditure management.
Digital tax administration tools like TaRMS could enhance revenue collection by 1.4-1.8%.

5. Implementation Recommendations

Risk Management: Strengthen fiscal risk assessments and improve budget credibility.
Communication and Compensation: Develop clear implementation plans with targeted compensation mechanisms for reforms.
Institutional Reforms: Enhance PFM systems, establish social registries, and promote evidence-based policymaking.

The report underscores the importance of sustainable fiscal governance in achieving economic stability and poverty reduction.

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