2024-01-20-世界银行-提高公平和包容性财政政策的门槛-财政发生率分析_老挝_2023年10月（英）-53页._53页_2mb

Raising the Bar: Toward an Equitable and Inclusive Fiscal Policy
Fiscal Incidence Analysis, Lao PDR, October 2023

Summary

Key Findings on the Lao Fiscal System:

1. The 2018 Lao fiscal system was progressive, reducing inequality by 4.3 points on the Gini index. Wealthier households bore higher tax burdens, while poorer households benefited from in-kind transfers (health and education), though the redistributive effect was limited by low social spending.
2. Direct taxes (e.g., PIT and CIT) were progressive, driven by high informality among poor households. Indirect taxes (VAT and excises) were also progressive, as poorer households consumed more informal/exempt goods. However, weak revenue collection constrained social spending.
3. Social protection was limited, with low cash transfers and inadequate cash support, limiting poverty reduction.

Challenges and Policy Recommendations:

• Economic Context: Laos faces growth slowdown, high debt, and inflation, exacerbated by COVID-19. Fiscal space is tight, constraining social spending.
• Reforms Needed:
  • Tax Reforms: Restore VAT to 10% to boost revenue and reduce inequality, raise excise taxes on beer, cigarettes, and sugary drinks to generate revenue without overly burdening low-income households.
  • Spending Shift: Increase targeted cash transfers (e.g., CCT programs) to protect vulnerable groups and prevent human capital erosion.
  • Fiscal Space: Combine tax hikes with social spending (health, education) to sustain long-term growth while reducing inequality.

4. Cross-Country Comparison: Laos underperformed peer countries in inequality-reduction and poverty reduction due to lower public spending.

Outlook:
The Lao fiscal system is a tool for stability and inclusion but faces challenges in revenue generation and social spending. Immediate reforms are needed to address inequality, poverty, and long-term development risks.