世界银行-从政策到影响_亚美尼亚的财政影响分析（英）-2025.4_82页_5mb

Fiscal Incidence Analysis in Armenia: Key Findings

• Fiscal Performance:
  Armenia has improved its tax-to-GDP ratio from 21.2% (2014-2019) to 23.5% (2021-2023), primarily driven by indirect taxes (indirect taxes constitute 52.6% of total revenue). Total public expenditure stands at 29.5% of GDP, with social protection and education receiving priority allocations.

• Redistributive Effects:
  Fiscal policy has reduced national poverty by 2.4 percentage points (6.6% at market income, falling to 4.0% at final income), lowering the Gini coefficient by 13.6 points. Pensions and direct transfers are major drivers of redistribution, benefiting the poorest 40%. Despite progressivity in direct transfers, indirect taxes like VAT are regressive, disproportionately affecting lower-income groups.

• Healthcare and Poverty:
  Current healthcare spending is low (2.3% of GDP in social services), with OOP covering 78.7% of total health expenditure, leading to significant barriers among low-income households. Incorporating health benefits into poverty measures (SPM/HIPM) achieves moderate poverty reduction but highlights challenges in affordability.

• Universal Health Insurance (UHI) Impact:
  UHI simulations show a potential 0.6% reduction in poverty but a 2.2-point increase in inequality. Sensitivity analysis reveals challenges in uptake (low reported OOP spending) and design without regressive elements, emphasizing the need for behavioral change modeling and FA allocations.