世界银行-受限环境下的财政政策、贫困和不平等：以约旦河西岸和加沙为例（英）-2024.1-79页_2mb

Fiscal Policy, Poverty, and Inequality in the West Bank and Gaza: Summary Analysis

Introduction

This analysis evaluates the distributional impacts of fiscal policies on households in the West Bank and Gaza using the Commitment to Equity methodology. It focuses on taxes, transfers, and in-kind benefits, addressing how they affect poverty, inequality, and overall household welfare in a constrained economic environment. Key questions include the effects of fiscal instruments on poverty and inequality, their progressivity, and policy recommendations for improvement.

Key Findings

• Inequality and Poverty: Fiscal policies reduce the Gini coefficient by 6.5 points but increase the national poverty headcount by 8.4 percentage points. This indicates a trade-off where redistribution benefits reduce inequality but may exacerbate poverty for vulnerable groups.
• Distributional Effects: Only the poorest decile (decile 1) is a net cash beneficiary, with other deciles being net payers. In-kind benefits from public education and health significantly contribute to inequality reduction (accounting for about 40% of the total impact).
• Progressivity: Most fiscal instruments are progressive (e.g., direct transfers and VAT), but some are regressive (e.g., fuel subsidies and pension income), disproportionately benefiting wealthier households.
• Tax and Transfer Drivers: Indirect taxes (e.g., VAT and customs duties) are major drivers of poverty increase, while direct transfers and in-kind benefits are key for inequality reduction. Limited social protection coverage exacerbates negative fiscal impacts on the poor.
• International Comparison: The West Bank and Gaza's poverty impact is severe relative to other countries, while inequality reduction is moderate.

Policy Recommendations

• Expand targeted cash transfers (e.g., the Cash Transfer Program) to compensat for indirect tax burdens, particularly targeting deciles 2 and 3.
• Rationalize fuel and electricity subsidies to generate fiscal space, as they are inefficient and regressive.
• Strengthen social protection systems to improve coverage and reduce poverty-increasing effects of taxes.
• Optimize tax structures to enhance progressivity and redistribute effectively within the constrained fiscal environment.

Methodology and Limitations

The study uses CEQ methodology with household survey and administrative data, but it excludes some fiscal categories due to data gaps. Results should be interpreted cautiously due to limitations like consumption informality and sampling biases.

Conclusion

Fiscal policies in the West Bank and Gaza can achieve moderate inequality reduction but exacerbate poverty, necessitating reforms focusing on targeted social transfers and subsidy rationalization to balance equity and revenue mobilization in a fragile economy.