20150915-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_13页_2mb

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Hong Kong and global investment markets, focusing on key indices, sector performance, stock analysis, and market data. It highlights the performance of major indices, notable stock movements, valuation metrics, and economic indicators affecting the market.

Main Points

Market Highlights

• At the end of August, China's forex purchase position dropped significantly, with financial institutions experiencing a record decline.
• Market expectations for a required reserve ratio cut are increasing.
• China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has cleaned up over 60% of trading accounts suspected of illegal financing, indicating a controlled risk.
• The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose 57 points to close at 21,561, while HSCEI closed at 9,728, up 10 points.
• Total turnover dropped to HK$69.5bn, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
• Several brokerage firms received administrative penalties, leading to price declines.

Equity Indices Performance

• HSI: Closed at 21,562, with a daily change of +0.3% and a year-to-date change of -8.7%.
• HSCEI: Closed at 9,729, with a daily change of +0.1% and a year-to-date change of -18.8%.
• Shanghai Composite: Closed at 3,115, with a daily change of -2.7% and a year-to-date change of -3.7%.
• Shenzhen Composite: Closed at 1,663, with a daily change of -6.7% and a year-to-date change of +17.5%.
• DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, FTSE 100, DAX, CAC 40, and Nikkei 225 all showed mixed performance, with some indices declining and others showing modest gains.

Sector Performance

Top Performing Sectors (1D % change)

• Automobile: +0.7%
• Aluminum: +0.6%
• Agriculture: +0.5%
• Infrastructure: +0.4%
• Local Property: +0.3%
• Chinese Banks: +0.3%
• Chinese Telecoms: +0.2%
• Chinese Property: +0.1%

Major Stocks in Top Performing Sectors

• Automobile: Geely Auto (175), Dongfeng Motor (489), BRILLIANCE CHI (1114), BYD Co. (1211), Great Wall Motor (2333)
• Aluminum: Chalco (2600), China Hongqiao (1378), China Zhongwang (1333), RUSAL (486)
• Agriculture: First Tractor (38), Sinofert (297), Ko Yo Group (827), National Agri (1236), China Bluechem (3983)
• Infrastructure: China Railway (390), China Railway Cons. (1186), CSR Corp. (1766), China Comm. Cons. (1800), China Machinery Eng. (1829)
• Local Property: CK Hutchison (1), Henderson Land (12), SHK Prop (16), New World Dev (17), Sino Land (83)
• Chinese Banks: CCB (939), ABC (1288), ICBC (1398), BankComm (3328), BOC (3988)
• Chinese Telecoms: China Telecom (728), China Unicom (762), China Mobile (941)
• Chinese Property: COLI (688), China Res Land (1109), Sunac (1918), Country Garden (2007), Evergrande (3333)
• Local Banks: Hang Seng Bank (11), BEA (23), Chong Hing Bank (1111), BOCHK (2388), Dah Sing Banking (2356)
• Chinese Insurers: China Taiping Ins. (966), NCI (1336), CPIC (2601), Ping An (2318), China Life (2628)
• Gas: China Gas (384), Beijing Enterprises (392), ENN Energy (2688), CIMC Enric (3899), China Res Gas (1193)

Valuation Analysis

Forward P/E and Valuations of Major Indices

• HSI: FY15E P/E at 10.7, long-term average at 11.3, deviation at -4.9%, FY1 EPS growth at -13.4%, FY2 EPS growth at 7.5%.
• HSCEI: FY15E P/E at 7.3, long-term average at 8.5, deviation at -14.0%, FY1 EPS growth at -4.4%, FY2 EPS growth at 6.7%.
• Shanghai Composite: FY15E P/E at 13.2, long-term average at 11.0, deviation at +19.1%, FY1 EPS growth at 17.9%, FY2 EPS growth at 12.6%.
• S&P 500: FY15E P/E at 16.5, long-term average at 14.7, deviation at +12.0%, FY1 EPS growth at 4.5%, FY2 EPS growth at 10.3%.

Market Data

Best and Worst Performers

• Best Performers:

  • China Precious M: +7.8%
  • China High-Speed: +5.5%
  • Texwinca Hldg: +5.0%
  • China Travel HK: +4.0%
  • Biostime Interna: +3.9%

• Worst Performers:

  • Shougang Fushan: -13.3%
  • Maoye Int'l Hldgs: -9.8%
  • Forgame Holdings: -7.0%
  • Belle Int'l: -7.0%
  • Trinity Ltd: -6.8%

HSCI Volume Filter

• Highlighted stocks with significant volume increases include China Precious M, SA SA Int'l Hldgs, Golden Eagle Ret, China Shengmu Or, etc.

Most Short Sold Stocks

• Stocks such as Kerry Ppt (683.HK), Xinyi Solar Hldgs (968.HK), and others showed high short-selling turnover.

External Market Conditions

• U.S. Stocks: Declined due to anticipation of the Fed's interest rate decision.
  • Dow Jones: Closed at 16,370, down 62 points.
  • S&P 500: Closed at 1,953, down 8 points.
  • NASDAQ Composite: Closed at 4,806, down 16 points.
• ADR Impact: ADRs dropped, effectively putting HSI down 101 points.
• Oil Prices: Declined due to weaker-than-expected Chinese industrial production.
  • New York Crude Oil: Closed at US$44/bbl, down US$0.63.
• Gold Futures: Closed at US$1,107.7/oz, up US$4.4.

A-Share Premium to H-Share

• The table highlights the A-share premium to H-share for various companies, indicating a significant gap for many, which may suggest investment opportunities or market sentiment shifts.

Today's Top Picks

• Zhongzhi Pharm (3737):

  • Last Close: HK$2.37
  • Purchase Price: Current
  • Target Price: HK$2.80
  • Stop-loss Price: HK$2.10
  • Reason: Robust sales growth for new decoction pieces.

• CH Dredg Env (871):

  • Last Close: HK$1.09
  • Purchase Price: Current
  • Target Price: HK$1.25
  • Stop-loss Price: HK$1.00
  • Reason: Price rose above 20-day MA, increased turnover.

Summary

The document outlines the current state of the Hong Kong and global investment markets, emphasizing the decline in forex purchase positions, the performance of key indices, sector movements, and specific stock analysis. It also includes detailed market data on turnover, short selling, interest rates, exchange rates, and precious metals. The focus is on identifying investment opportunities based on valuation, sector performance, and technical indicators.