20160301-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_13页_2mb
报告摘要
Investment Daily Note Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Hong Kong and global markets, including key indices, stock performance, sector trends, valuations, and other market-related data. It highlights the latest market movements, investment opportunities, and analysis of specific stocks and ETFs.
Main Indices and Performance
-
Hang Seng Index (HSI):
- Close: 19,112
- Daily Change: -1.3%
- Year-to-Date (YTD) Change: -12.8%
-
HSCEI:
- Close: 7,916
- Daily Change: -1.5%
- YTD Change: -18.1%
-
Shanghai Composite:
- Close: 2,688
- Daily Change: -2.9%
- YTD Change: -24.1%
-
Shenzhen Composite:
- Close: 1,643
- Daily Change: -5.4%
- YTD Change: -28.8%
Key Market Events
- The People's Bank of China cut its reserve requirement ratio by 0.5%, likely benefiting the property sector and boosting stocks like China Resources Land (1109.HK).
- China's official PMI for February dropped by 0.4 and 0.8 percentage points to 49 and 52.7 respectively, indicating ongoing economic challenges and increased policy expectations.
- US stocks ended lower due to worse-than-expected housing data, while oil prices surged due to potential OPEC output freeze.
- Gold prices rose significantly, logging the biggest monthly gain in four years, as investors sought to hedge against uncertainty.
Hong Kong Market Turnover
| Index/Market | Turnover (HK$bn) | Daily Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| HSI | 17.7 | -19.09% |
| HSCCI | 4.3 | 5.69% |
| HSCEI | 8.8 | -11.44% |
| Main Board | 64.0 | 2.47% |
Yesterday's Hong Kong Equities
- HSI fell over 300 points to a day's low and closed at 19,111, down 252 points.
- HSCEI closed at 7,916, down 117 points.
- BYD (1211.HK) saw a rise in its share price, driven by strong net profit growth in 2015.
- CLP (2.HK) had a decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit and declared a final dividend.
Stock in Focus: Anta Sports Products (2020.HK)
-
Last Close: HK$17.58
-
Entry Price: HK$17.14
-
Target Price: HK$20.20
-
Stop-loss Price: HK$15.66
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YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: -17.5% / -8.3% / -24.7% / 13.3%
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Market Cap: HK$43.97bn
-
3M Average Daily Volume: 6.71mn shares
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FY1 Forward P/E: 15.8
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Performance Analysis: Anta Sports Products experienced a slowdown in sales growth, but this is attributed to seasonal factors. Management reports a rebound in sales, and the company is expected to maintain profitability with brand upgrades and new product launches.
Today's Top Picks
-
Wison Engrg (2236):
- Last Trading Day Closing Price: HK$0.93
- Purchase Price: Current
- Target Price: HK$1.06
- Stop-loss Price: HK$0.89
- Reason: Share price may test 150-day moving average.
-
Couragemarine (1145):
- Last Trading Day Closing Price: HK$17.76
- Purchase Price: Current
- Target Price: HK$19.10
- Stop-loss Price: HK$16.60
- Reason: 10-day moving average rose above 50-day moving average, indicating potential short-term rebound.
Sector Performance
| Sector | Daily Change (%) | 5-Day Change (%) | 1-Month Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| REITs | 1.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% |
| Local Property | 0.3% | -0.8% | 3.2% |
| Handset & Accessories | 0.3% | 0.2% | 3.9% |
| HK Telecoms | 0.3% | 1.8% | 6.2% |
| Local Banks | 0.1% | -0.8% | 5.9% |
| HK Consumer Group | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.1% |
| Department Store | 0.1% | -2.4% | 0.0% |
| Coal | 0.0% | -2.2% | 0.9% |
| Gas | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Consumer Staples | -0.2% | -4.4% | -3.4% |
| Toll Road | -0.2% | -1.0% | -0.1% |
| Dairy | -0.3% | -5.4% | -1.9% |
| Chinese Property | -0.7% | -3.5% | -0.7% |
| Automobile | -0.9% | -5.7% | 0.3% |
| Gaming | -0.9% | -3.6% | 1.0% |
Forward P/E and Valuations of Major Indices
| Index | FY16E P/E (X) | Long-term Avg. Fwd. P/E (X) | Deviation from Avg. (%) | FY1 EPS Growth (%) | FY2 EPS Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSI | 9.9 | 11.0 | -9.6 | -13.5 | 11.7 |
| HSCEI | 6.2 | 7.9 | -21.7 | -5.0 | 10.1 |
| Shanghai Composite | 11.2 | 10.7 | 4.5 | 26.5 | 12.8 |
| S&P 500 | 16.2 | 15.3 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 13.3 |
Previous Day's Best and Worst Performers
Best Performers
| Stock Code | Price (HK$) | 1D Chg (%) | 5D Chg (%) | 1M Chg (%) | YTD Chg (%) | Turnover (HK$m) | FY1 P/E | FY2 P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HYDOOINTERNATIO | 1396.HK | 0.940 | 6.8 | 10.6 | -13.0 | 1.2 | 6.1 | 4.7 |
| TSUI WAH HOLDING | 1314.HK | 1.630 | 6.5 | 16.4 | -9.9 | 4.3 | 15.1 | 13.3 |
| CHINA SHENGMU OR | 1432.HK | 1.650 | 6.5 | 1.2 | -5.2 | 3.0 | 12.6 | 8.9 |
Worst Performers
| Stock Code | Price (HK$) | 1D Chg (%) | 5D Chg (%) | 1M Chg (%) | YTD Chg (%) | Turnover (HK$m) | FY1 P/E | FY2 P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIHUAN PHARM | 460.HK | 1.990 | -54.5 | -54.5 | -54.5 | 2,109.8 | 9.7 | 8.1 |
| CRTG | 269.HK | 0.078 | -28.4 | -34.5 | -2.5 | 5.0 | N/A | N/A |
| UNIVERSAL HEALTH | 2211.HK | 1.050 | -16.7 | -13.2 | -6.3 | 101.3 | 4.7 | 3.8 |
| GOLDIN PROPERTY | 283.HK | 3.520 | -11.6 | -17.0 | -19.8 | 306.4 | N/A | N/A |
| ALUMINUM CORP-H | 2600.HK | 2.660 | -8.3 | 3.5 | 14.2 | 397.4 | 160.1 | N/A |
HSCI Volume Filter
| Company | Stock Code | Price (HK$) | 1D Chg (%) | Avg. Vol (m shares) | Prev. Vol (m shares) | % Increase | FY1 P/E | FY2 P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIHUAN PHARM | 460.HK | 1.990 | -54.5 | 35.9 | 1076.3 | 2,900.0 | 9.7 | 8.1 |
| HUISHAN DAIRY | 6863.HK | 2.920 | -1.0 | 16.6 | 129.8 | 683.6 | 49.2 | 31.2 |
| GOLDIN PROPERTY | 283.HK | 3.520 | -11.6 | 11.4 | 85.6 | 653.9 | N/A | N/A |
| WANDA HOTEL DEV | 169.HK | 0.750 | -6.3 | 0.9 | 6.1 | 583.1 | N/A | N/A |
| NEW WORLD CHINA | 917.HK | 7.420 | -0.9 | 2.9 | 14.1 | 391.6 | 19.3 | 18.1 |
Most Short Sold Stocks
| Company | Stock Code | Price (HK$) | 1D Chg (%) | Shortsell Turnover (HK$m) | % of Total Shortsell Turnover | % of Own Turnover | FY1 P/E | FY2 P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIHUAN PHARM | 460.HK | 1.990 | -54.5 | 2,109.8 | 0.0 | 86.1 | 9.7 | 8.1 |
| HUISHAN DAIRY | 6863.HK | 2.920 | -1.0 | 129.8 | 0.0 | 48.4 | 49.2 | 31.2 |
| GOLDIN PROPERTY | 283.HK | 3.520 | -11.6 | 306.4 | 0.0 | 50.9 | N/A | N/A |
| WANDA HOTEL DEV | 169.HK | 0.750 | -6.3 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 583.1 | N/A | N/A |
| NEW WORLD CHINA | 917.HK | 7.420 | -0.9 | 41.1 | 0.0 | 391.6 | 19.3 | 18.1 |
Interest Rates
| Rate Type | Latest (%) | 5D Chg (bps) | 1M Chg (bps) | YTD Chg (bps) | y-y % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. 2-year Treasury | 0.7737 | 4.00 | -2.38 | -27.40 | 15.53 |
| U.S. 10-year Treasury | 1.7278 | 0.53 | -22.08 | -54.16 | -26.52 |
| U.S. 30-year Treasury | 2.6102 | 3.13 | -15.16 | -40.56 | 1.99 |
| HK 1-month HIBOR | 0.2686 | -7.43 | -11.57 | 4.76 | 3.12 |
| HK 3-month HIBOR | 0.5908 | -4.36 | -9.46 | 19.72 | 20.51 |
| SH 1-month HIBOR | 2.8000 | 4.10 | -36.80 | -20.20 | -228.33 |
| SH 3-month HIBOR | 2.8990 | -0.20 | -20.40 | -18.62 | -200.10 |
Exchange Rates
| Currency Pair | Latest | 5D % Chg | 1M % Chg | YTD % Chg | y-y % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD Dollar Index | 98.2110 | 0.9 | -1.4 | -0.4 | 3.1 |
| USD/HKD | 7.7751 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| EUR/USD | 1.0881 | -1.3 | -0.1 | 0.2 | -2.7 |
| USD/JPY | 112.45 | -0.3 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 6.8 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3933 | -0.6 | -3.5 | -5.4 | -9.3 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9982 | -0.7 | 2.2 | 0.4 | -3.9 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7135 | -0.9 | 0.3 | -2.1 | -8.1 |
| NZD/USD | 0.6606 | -0.5 | 0.9 | -3.3 | -12.0 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3540 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.2 | -7.4 |
| USD/CNY | 6.5452 | -0.3 | 0.5 | -0.8 | -4.2 |
| USD/CNH | 6.5548 | -0.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | -4.0 |
Precious Metals and Commodities
| Commodity | Latest | 5D % Chg | 1M % Chg | YTD % Chg | y-y % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRB Index | 163.2 | 0.4 | -2.1 | -7.3 | -27.2 |
| Comex Gold | 1,241.9 | 1.6 | 10.1 | 17.1 | 2.4 |
| Comex Silver | 14.930 | -2.0 | 4.1 | 8.2 | -9.6 |
| Nymex WTI Crude | 33.75 | 5.9 | 6.7 | -8.9 | -32.2 |
| ICE Brent Crude | 36.57 | 5.4 | 5.3 | -1.9 | -41.6 |
| LME Copper | 4,695.00 | 0.0 | 2.9 | -0.2 | -20.4 |
| LME Aluminum | 1,573.00 | -0.1 | 3.6 | 4.4 | -13.3 |
| CBT Wheat | 453.25 | -1.1 | -5.4 | -3.6 | -12.4 |
| CBT Corn | 357.00 | -2.9 | -4.0 | -0.5 | -7.2 |
| CBT Soybean | 861.00 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -1.2 | -16.5 |
A-Share Premium to H-Share
| Company | H-Share Code | H-Share Price (HK$) | A-Share Code | A-Share Price (RMB) | A-Share Premium to H-Share (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUOYANG GLASS-H | 1108 | 4.19 | 600876 | 27.23 | 672.0 |
| ZHEJIANG SHIBA-H | 1057 | 6.82 | 002703 | 25.28 | 340.3 |
| CHINA VANKE-H | 2202 | 17.52 | 000002 | 24.43 | 65.6 |
| CHINA SOUTHERN-H | 1055 | 4.36 | 600029 | 5.86 | 59.7 |
| BYD CO LTD-H | 1211 | 38.60 | 002594 | 50.51 | 55.4 |
| CHINA RESOURCES-H | 291 | 12.60 | 600585 | 14.09 | 8.4 |
| PETROCHINA-H | 857 | 4.99 | 601857 | 7.28 | 73.3 |
| ANHUI EXPRESS-H | 995 | 6.01 | 600012 | 12.11 | 97.1 |
| SINOPEC SHANG-H | 338 | 3.30 | 600688 | 5.56 | 79.2 |
Top 20 Most Traded ETFs
| ETF Code | ETF Name | Price (HK$) | 1D Chg (%) | 5D Chg (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2823 | iShares FTSE A50 | 8.75 | -2.13 | -6.22 |
| 2822 | CSOP FTSE CH-HKD | 10.18 | -2.12 | -5.21 |
| 2800 | Tracker Fund HK | 19.30 | -1.43 | -1.83 |
| 2828 | HS H-Share ETF-H | 79.85 | -1.60 | -3.68 |
| 3188 | ChinaAMC 300-HKD | 34.95 | -2.65 | -7.66 |
| 82822 | CSOP FTSE CH-RMB | 8.58 | -1.94 | -4.77 |
| 83188 | ChinaAMC 300-CNY | 29.50 | -2.32 | -7.23 |
| 2840 | SPDR Gold Shares | 915.00 | -0.54 | 1.61 |
| 3070 | Ping An HKDIV | 19.74 | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| 3147 | CSOP SZSE ETF-HK | 8.51 | -4.49 | -13.95 |
Conclusion
The document highlights the recent market conditions, key indices, and sector performance in the Hong Kong and global markets. It emphasizes the impact of the PBOC's RRR cut on the property sector, the mixed performance of global indices, and the notable movement in gold and oil prices. Anta Sports Products is identified as a potential investment opportunity with a strategic entry and target price. Additionally, it lists the best and worst performing stocks, short sold stocks, and provides a comparison of A-share and H-share premiums, along with the top traded ETFs.
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