20150924-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_13页_2mb
报告摘要
Investment Daily Note Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Hong Kong and Chinese stock markets, including equity indices, sector performance, company-specific data, and market conditions such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities. It also highlights key stock picks and insights on trading activity and valuations.
Main Market Indices Performance
| Index | Close | Daily Change (%) | YTD Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| HSI | 21,303 | -2.3 | -9.8 |
| HSCEI | 9,570 | -2.7 | +20.1 |
| Shanghai Comp | 3,116 | -2.2 | +3.7 |
| Shenzhen Comp | 1,736 | -0.8 | +22.7 |
| DJIA | 16,280 | -0.3 | -8.7 |
| S&P 500 | 1,939 | -0.2 | -5.8 |
| Nasdaq Comp | 4,753 | -0.1 | +0.4 |
| FTSE 100 | 6,032 | +1.6 | -8.1 |
| DAX | 9,613 | +0.4 | -2.0 |
| CAC 40 | 4,433 | +0.1 | +3.7 |
| Nikkei 225 | 17,728 | -1.9 | +1.6 |
| Taiwan Weighted | 8,193 | -2.1 | -12.0 |
Sector Performance Overview
Best Performing Sectors (1D % change)
- HK Telecoms: +0.2%
- Durable Consumables: -1.5%
- HK Consumer Group: -1.5%
- Technology: -1.5%
- Handset and related accessories: -1.7%
- Marine: -1.7%
- Consumer Staples: -1.7%
- Toll Road: -1.8%
- REITs: -1.8%
- Sports accessories: -1.9%
- Department Store: -2.0%
- Medical: -2.0%
- Chinese Banks: -2.3%
- Local Banks: -2.4%
- Chinese Telecoms: -2.5%
Key Stocks in Best Performing Sectors
- HK Telecoms: HutchTel HK (215), Smartone (315), HKT-SS (6823)
- Durable Consumables: Welling Hldg. (382), Skyworth Digital (751), Hisense Kelon Elec (921), TCL Multimedia (1070)
- HK Consumer Group: Sa Sa Int'l (178), Cafe De Coral (341), Luk Fook (590), Bonjour (653), I.T (999)
- Technology: Kingdee (268), Chinasoft (354), Tencent (700), NetDragon (777), Kingsoft (3888)
- Handset and related accessories: Tongda Group (698), AAC Tech (2018), Sunny Optical (2382), Coolpad Group (2369), TCL Comm (2618)
- Marine: OOIL (316), Sinotrans Ship (368), Cosco Pacific (1199), Pacific Basin (2343), CSCL (2866)
- Consumer Staples: Want Want (151), Uni-President (220), Tingyi (322), Hengan Int'l (1044), Sun Art Retail (6808)
- Toll Road: Sichuan Express (107), Jiangsu Express (177), Shenzhen Express (548), Zhejiang Express (576), Anhui Expressway (995)
- REITs: Yuexiu REIT (405), Fortune REIT (778), Prosperity REIT (808), LINK Reit (823), Champion REIT (2778)
- Sports accessories: 361 Degrees (1361), Xtep Int'l (1368), Peak Sport (1968), Anta Sports (2020), Li Ning (2331)
- Department Store: NWDS China (825), Springland (1700), Intime (1833), Golden Eagle (3308), Parkson Group (3368)
- Medical: Trad Chi Med (570), Sinopharm (1099), Sino Biopharm (1177), Fosun Pharma (2196), SH Pharma (2607)
- Chinese Banks: CCB (939), ABC (1288), ICBC (1398), BankComm (3328), BOC (3988)
- Local Banks: Hang Seng Bank (11), BEA (23), Chong Hing Bank (1111), BOCHK (2388), Dah Sing Banking (2356)
- Chinese Telecoms: China Telecom (728), China Unicom (762), China Mobile (941)
Key Stocks in Focus
Ajisen China (538.HK)
- Last Close: HK$3.58
- Entry: HK$3.30
- Target: HK$3.90
- Stop-loss: HK$3.11
- YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: -39.4% / +14.0% / -13.9% / -44.9%
- Market Cap: HK$3.91bn
- 3M Average Daily Volume: 1.56mn shares
- FY1 Forward P/E: 14.9x
Analysis: Ajisen is leveraging the "Internet Plus" initiative by investing in Baidu Takeout Delivery, aiming to transition its business model. The stock is expected to rise due to this strategic move.
Today's Top Picks
-
HKBN (1310.HK)
- Last Close: HK$8.94
- Purchase Price: Current
- Target Price: HK$9.56
- Stop-loss Price: HK$8.50
- Reason: Anticipated cooperation with Letv and Premier League broadcasting rights.
-
FDG EVEHICLES (729.HK)
- Last Close: HK$0.55
- Purchase Price: Current
- Target Price: HK$0.60
- Stop-loss Price: HK$0.49
- Reason: Anticipated inclusion of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure in major project packages.
Forward P/E and Valuations
| Index | FY15E P/E | Long-term Avg. Fwd. P/E | Deviation from Avg. (%) | FY1 EPS Growth (%) | FY2 EPS Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSI | 10.6 | 11.3 | -5.8 | -13.9 | +7.4 |
| HSCEI | 7.1 | 8.5 | -16.3 | -4.1 | +6.3 |
| Shanghai Comp | 13.2 | 11.0 | +19.4 | +17.9 | +12.3 |
| S&P 500 | 16.4 | 14.7 | +11.5 | +4.3 | +10.3 |
Market Data Highlights
Best and Worst Performers
- Best Performers: FDG EVEHICLES, GUOTAI JUNAN, SSY GROUP LTD, TRINITY LTD, CITIC TELECOM
- Worst Performers: MGM CHINA, SUNAC, SINOTRUK HK LTD, NINE DRAGONS PAP, SFCE
HSCI Volume Filter
- Top Stocks: Huishang Bank-H (3698.HK), SSY Group Ltd (2005.HK), CP New Energy (735.HK), Sinotruk HK Ltd (3808.HK), Nine Dragons Panda (2689.HK)
Most Short Sold Stocks
- Top Stocks: MGM China (2282.HK), Sunac (1918.HK), Sinotruk HK Ltd (3808.HK), Nine Dragons Panda (2689.HK), SFCE (1138.HK)
External Market Conditions
- U.S. equities: Retreated due to weak China and U.S. manufacturing data.
- ADR: Declined, effectively putting HSI down 152 points.
- Crude Oil Futures: Closed at US$44.48/bbl, down US$1.88.
- Gold Futures: Closed at US$1,131.5/oz, up US$6.7.
Interest Rates and Exchange Rates
Interest Rates
| Rate | Latest (%) | 5D Change (bps) | 1M Change (bps) | YTD Change (bps) | y-y % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. 2-year | 0.7032 | +2.37 | +13.52 | +3.87 | +11.66 |
| U.S. 10-year | 2.1408 | -4.95 | +13.74 | -3.04 | -42.29 |
| U.S. 30-year | 2.9341 | -7.13 | +20.48 | +18.23 | -34.49 |
| HK 1-month HIBOR | 0.2421 | -0.03 | -0.04 | +0.69 | +3.07 |
| HK 3-month HIBOR | 0.3997 | -0.15 | +1.05 | +1.83 | +3.11 |
| SH 1-month HIBOR | 3.0860 | +3.30 | +29.70 | -250.20 | -101.20 |
| SH 3-month HIBOR | 3.1468 | +1.13 | +5.68 | -198.83 | -144.02 |
Exchange Rates
| Currency Pair | Latest | 5D % Change | 1M % Change | YTD % Change | y-y % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD Dollar Index | 96.2080 | +1.8 | +3.1 | +6.6 | +13.1 |
| USD/HKD | 7.7501 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.1 | 0.0 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1180 | -2.3 | -3.8 | -7.6 | -12.5 |
| USD/JPY | 120.16 | -0.1 | -1.5 | -0.4 | -9.3 |
| GBP/USD | 1.5247 | -2.2 | -3.3 | -2.1 | -6.7 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9792 | -1.9 | -5.0 | +1.6 | -3.4 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7002 | -2.4 | -2.2 | -14.3 | -21.2 |
| NZD/USD | 0.6286 | -1.0 | -3.1 | -19.4 | -22.2 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3325 | -1.1 | -0.3 | -12.8 | -17.0 |
| USD/CNY | 6.3835 | -0.3 | +0.3 | -2.8 | -3.9 |
| USD/CNH | 6.4345 | -0.5 | +1.0 | -3.3 | -4.6 |
Precious Metals and Commodities
| Commodity | Latest | 5D % Change | 1M % Change | YTD % Change | y-y % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRB Index | 192.4 | -3.3 | +3.3 | -16.3 | -31.4 |
| Comex Gold | 1,130.6 | +1.2 | -2.0 | -4.5 | -7.2 |
| Comex Silver | 14.785 | -1.3 | +0.2 | -5.0 | -16.5 |
| Nymex WTI Crude | 44.8 | -4.5 | +17.2 | -15.9 | -51.7 |
| ICE Brent Crude | 47.95 | -2.3 | +12.3 | -16.4 | -50.5 |
| LME Copper | 5,057 | -6.0 | +0.0 | -19.7 | -24.7 |
| LME Aluminum | 1,577 | -3.0 | +1.9 | -14.9 | -19.8 |
| CBT Wheat | 506.25 | +5.1 | +0.6 | -14.2 | +5.4 |
| CBT Corn | 382.25 | +0.7 | +3.7 | -3.7 | +16.0 |
| CBT Soybean | 863.25 | -2.4 | -3.3 | -15.3 | -7.8 |
A-share Premium to H-share
| Company | H Share Code | H Share Price (HK$) | A Share Code | A Share Price (RMB) | A-share Premium to H-share (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUOYANG GLASS-H | 1108 | 4.73 | 600876 | 23.29 | 497.8 |
| ANGANG STEEL-H | 347 | 3.40 | 000898 | 4.84 | 72.8 |
| ZHEJIANG SHIBA-H | 1057 | 6.14 | 002703 | 30.16 | 496.4 |
| SINOPEC OILFIE-H | 1033 | 2.51 | 600871 | 10.19 | 392.9 |
| SHANDONG XINHU-H | 719 | 5.00 | 000756 | 12.15 | 195.0 |
| ICBC-H | 1398 | 4.55 | 601398 | 4.37 | 16.6 |
| ZTE-H | 763 | 17.74 | 000063 | 16.24 | 11.1 |
Key Insights and Trends
- The HSI and HSCEI declined due to weak manufacturing data and global economic concerns.
- Ajisen China is investing in Baidu Takeout Delivery to leverage the "Internet Plus" initiative.
- The market is anticipating policy support for electric vehicles and lithium battery sectors.
- There is a notable drop in the share price of Chinese brokerage stocks due to insider trading allegations.
- Macau gaming stocks are under selling pressure due to declining casino revenue.
- Interest rates in the U.S. and Hong Kong are showing mixed trends.
- The A-share premium to H-share is significant for several companies, indicating potential for growth in the A-share market.
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