2021-12-16-牛津经济研究院-Africa_Watchlist_2022_5页_470kb

Africa Watchlist 2022 Summary

Ethiopia: Tigray Unilateral Declaration of Independence

• Drivers: Ongoing border conflicts, ethnic mobilization, foreign interference (e.g., Egypt, UAE, Saudi Arabia), federal government's inability to reconquer Tigray.
• Likelihood: Moderate
• Potential Impact: Increased business difficulties, disrupted operations, reputational risk for companies, delayed liberalization plans, emboldened opposition in other regions.

West Africa: French Withdrawal from Mali

• Drivers: Isolationist sentiment in France, Russian opportunism (e.g., Wagner Group involvement).
• Likelihood: High
• Potential Impact: Increased violence and smuggling in the three-border area, loss of Ecowas influence, radical opposition to Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire governments, deteriorated business environment for French companies.

South Africa: Stage 8 Loadshedding

• Drivers: Aging electricity infrastructure, planned breakdowns of power stations, inadequate Reserve Generation Capacity (RGC), low demand response.
• Likelihood: Low
• Potential Impact: Severe power outages (up to 8,000 MW offline), potential national blackout, economic impacts on industries like smelters.

Currency Surprises

• Drivers: Weakening Emerging Market sentiment, reliance on portfolio inflows for currencies like the Egyptian pound, copper price resilience.
• Likelihood: High
• Potential Surprise: Egyptian pound could be a major loser due to capital outflows; Zambian kwacha could surprise if copper prices hold or institutional reforms progress.