2022-03-02-牛津经济研究院-Africa_Ripple_effects_of_a_Russia-Ukraine_war_5页_343kb

Russia-Ukraine War Impacts on Africa

Negative Impacts:

• Import-dependent African countries, such as Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Senegal, Nigeria, and Tanzania, will face trade disruptions, soaring commodity prices, and potential food insecurity due to reliance on Russian and Ukrainian imports.
• Grain supply chain issues could lead to higher international cereal prices, exacerbating cost-of-living challenges and political risks, as seen in historical events like bread riots in Egypt.
• Tourism losses are significant, with destinations like Egypt experiencing reduced Russian tourist arrivals due to sanctions and travel restrictions, impacting recovery efforts.

Positive Impacts:

• Commodity exporters, including fuel exporters (e.g., South Africa, Algeria, Nigeria, Angola) and those in metals and minerals (e.g., Zimbabwe, Zambia), benefit from elevated prices due to sanctions and reduced Russian trade.
• New market opportunities arise from deteriorating Russia-Western trade, particularly in Europe, but this depends on African policies favoring European and US relations.

Other Considerations:

• Africa's position in global commodity markets determines outcomes; disruptions and price shocks may reduce Russian capital inflows to the continent.
• Trade relations with Russia-wary nations could limit growth, while some countries may maintain ties with Russia, complicating diplomatic strategies.

Overall, the war has mixed effects, creating winners (commodity exporters) and losers (import-dependent nations), with long-term outcomes uncertain and influenced by policy and global developments.