2022-02-24-牛津经济研究院-Eurozone_War_in_Ukraine_will_hit_Europe_s_economy_5页_251kb

Summary of Weekly Economic Briefing: Eurozone Impact of Ukraine War

The report from Oxford Economics on 25 Feb 2022 analyzes the economic consequences of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Key points include: The conflict is expected to weigh on Europe's economy more than previously thought, with higher gas, oil, and food prices persisting for longer periods. This exacerbates inflation risks in the eurozone, potentially entrenching it and harming households and industries. Sanctions on Russia and financial market disruptions add further strain. The ECB may delay its policy normalization, postponing the first interest rate hike to Q1 2023 amid uncertain crisis evolution. A scenario of permanent gas supply suspension is now plausible, dealing a severe blow to Europe's economy. Recent PMI rebound may be short-lived as conflict tensions rise, leading to downward revisions in GDP growth forecasts and inflation expectations for the year. Upcoming data releases will likely reflect these impacts, with implications for growth and inflation dynamics.

• Economic outlook: Inflation elevated due to energy and food price spikes, increasing risks to real incomes.
• Policy response: ECB may adopt a more flexible approach, delaying rate hikes.
• Growth forecast: Q2-Q3 2022 growth expected robust, but subject to revision; private consumption may remain key.
• Geopolitical risks: Sanctions deepen supply chain issues; oil and gas price forecasts revised upward.