20220228-牛津经济研究院-Africa_Who_will_ride_the_oil_price_tailwinds_7页_448kb

Oil prices exceeded $100pb in early 2022 due to geopolitical tensions, tight markets, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. African oil producers may benefit financially from higher prices, but face challenges like production shortfalls and inflation. OPEC+ compliance was strong, with 130% output cuts in January 2022, yet countries like Nigeria, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea missed targets. Algeria and Gabon showed production recovery, while Libya's output was hampered by politics. Non-OPEC nations like Uganda aim to increase exports. Overall, higher prices could boost fiscal balances if production improves, but risks include political instability and subsidy retention. We forecast Brent crude to average $94.4pb in Q1 2022 and $98.7pb overall, higher than 2021 levels.