2025-02-09-牛津经济研究院-重建老特拉福德的经济影响（英）_14页_1mb

Economic Impact Summary of Regenerating Old Trafford

Background: Manchester United is investing in a new 100,000-seater stadium at Trafford, part of a wider regeneration plan including the Trafford Wharfside Masterplan. A Tripartite Partnership, involving Manchester United, Trafford Council, and GMCA, aims to realize this transformation.

Economic Impact:

• GVA Contribution: The combined masterplans (Old Trafford & Trafford Wharfside) could increase GVA by £4.18 billion for Trafford and £7.32 billion for the UK by 2039.
• Job Creation: Will generate an additional 47,900 jobs in Trafford and 91,600 jobs across the UK workforce.
• Tax Revenue: Contribute £1.38 billion in tax revenues.
• Visitor Impact: The new stadium (25,690 seats) could increase visitor numbers to Greater Manchester by 1.76 million (real terms growth of 7.1% by 2032) and boost visitor spending by £358 million.

Key Benefits:

• Housing: Delivers over 91,600 new homes by 2039, addressing housing shortages in Trafford and supporting 7.7k + 13.5k new residents.
• Economic Growth: Could raise GDP growth in Trafford from 1.3% to 2.9% per year through 2039.
• Sectoral Diversity: Reduces reliance on a small number of sectors by introducing office, retail, and hospitality spaces.

Transport Infrastructure Impact:

• Plans include upgrading the railway line to improve efficiency, support regeneration, and cater for future freight growth in Trafford.

Environmental and Quality-of-Life Improvements:

• The Trafford Wharfside Masterplan includes new public open spaces, green zones, and tree protections, aiming to reduce deprivation and enhance community well-being.
• Replaces industrial areas with an urban environment designed for quality of life, workers, and visitors.

Lessons from Stadium-Led Regeneration: Case studies (e.g., London 2012) show stadiums can act as "anchors," attracting private investment and supporting long-term economic/social benefits. Successful regeneration relies on policy integration and multi-sector collaboration.

Methodology: Uses an input-output model to quantify direct, indirect, and induced impacts across the UK economy, accounting for visitor and residential spending.

Authors: Oxford Economics (Independent economic advisory firm founded in 1981, with offices worldwide).
Date: October 2024