20170907-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_23页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 07 September 2017

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of market updates and investment recommendations for various regions, with a focus on China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It includes sector performance, stock recommendations, key assumptions, corporate events, and financial metrics for specific companies.

Main Points and Key Information

China

Education Sector:
- Outperformed due to strong results, inclusion in the Hang Seng Index, and the implementation of the amended law promoting private education.
- The law, effective since 1 September 2017, allows private schools to operate normally, with potential for improved valuations due to steady earnings growth and better visibility.
- Key Takeaways:
  - Companies with non-profit status benefit from preferential tax rates.
  - Bright Scholar (BEDU US) and Wisdom Education (6068 HK) are likely to benefit more from the changes.
  - Companies with less exposure to compulsory education have more flexibility in fee adjustments.
Stock Picks:
- New Oriental (EDU US): BUY, Target: US$99.00
- China Maple Leaf (1317 HK): BUY, Target: HK$8.00
- TAL Education (TAL US): BUY, Target: US$30.50
Anta Sports (2020 HK):
- Maintained BUY recommendation, with a target price of HK$35.00.
- Strong growth momentum in 2H17, driven by new product launches and non-Anta brand sales growth (e.g., FILA and Descente).
- COC sponsorship bidding expected in early-4Q17, which could lead to higher SG&A costs in 2018.
- Looking for M&A targets in international professional running/training/outdoor brands.

Indonesia

Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ): BUY, Target: Rp5,400
- DCF base year rolled over to 2018, with potential for data volume surprises.

Malaysia

VS Industry (VSI MK): BUY, Target: RM2.80
- Price upside expected from potential contracts and projects from VSIG (43.5% owned).

Singapore

StarHub (STH SP): HOLD, Target: S$2.62
- Key takeaways from Sell-side Day.

Thailand

SAPPE (SAPPE TB): BUY, Target: Bt33.50
- Positive outlook for business growth.

Key Indices Performance

Index	Previous Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	21807.6	0.2	-0.3	-1.4	10.3
S&P 500	2465.5	0.3	0.8	-0.6	10.1
FTSE 100	7354.1	-0.3	-0.2	-2.4	3.0
AS30	5752.9	-0.3	0.3	-1.2	0.6
CSI 300	3849.5	-0.2	0.4	3.3	16.3
FSSTI	3232.5	-0.6	-0.5	-2.7	12.2
HSCEI	11128.8	-0.6	-2.2	0.7	18.5
HSI	27613.8	-0.5	-1.7	-0.3	25.5
JCI	5824.1	-0.1	-1.1	1.3	10.0
KLCI	1772.5	0.2	0.2	-0.3	8.0
KOSPI	2319.8	-0.3	-2.2	-3.3	14.5
Nikkei 225	19358.0	-0.1	-0.8	-3.5	1.3
SET	1621.3	0.1	0.5	3.0	5.1
TWSE	10547.9	-0.7	-0.2	-0.3	14.0
BDI	1215	2.4	2.9	17.7	26.4
CPO (RM/ml)	2726	1.7	0.6	4.8	-14.8
Brent Crude	54	1.5	6.6	3.4	-4.6

Sector Catalysts and Risks

Sector Catalysts

More details on the implementation of the amended law will provide clarity on earnings impact and dividend sustainability.
Stronger-than-expected enrolment growth will continue to support earnings.

Risks

Policy Risk: Unpredictable regulatory changes could affect revenue and earnings growth.
Recruitment Risk: Difficulty in attracting and retaining quality teachers.

Corporate Events

Roadshow with Xin Point Holdings: Hong Kong, 7 Sep
Analyst Marketing on Indonesia Construction Sector: Singapore, 13 Sep
Roadshow with Globetronics Technology: Hong Kong, 12 Sep
Tea Session with Cityneon Holdings: Singapore, 12 Sep
Roadshow with China Yongda Automobiles Services Holdings: Canada/US, 25–29 Sep
Roadshow with BBI Life Science Corp: Hong Kong, 28 Sep
Asian Gems Conference 2017: Singapore, 10–11 Oct
UOB Kay Hian Annual Regional Strategy Conference: Kuala Lumpur, 13 Nov

Key Assumptions (GDP Growth)

Region	2016	2017F	2018F
US	1.6	2.5	2.5
Euro Zone	1.7	1.8	1.6
Japan	1.0	0.9	1.2
Singapore	2.0	2.4	2.5
Malaysia	4.2	5.0	4.9
Thailand	3.2	3.3	3.3
Indonesia	5.0	5.2	5.5
Hong Kong	1.9	2.0	2.0
China	6.7	6.6	6.3
Brent Crude	45	52	55
CPO	2,653	2,600	2,400

Anta Sports (2020 HK) Financial Highlights

Key Financials

Metric	2015	2016	2017F	2018F	2019F
Net Turnover (Rmbm)	11,126	13,346	16,099	19,061	22,385
EBITDA (Rmbm)	2,885	3,429	4,230	5,055	6,019
Net Profit (Rmbm)	2,041	2,386	2,965	3,601	4,256
EPS (fen)	81.5	95.2	114.3	138.8	164.1
PE (x)	31.1	26.7	22.2	18.3	15.5
P/B (x)	7.4	6.6	4.8	4.4	4.1
EV/EBITDA (x)	20.8	17.5	14.2	11.9	10.0
Dividend Yield (%)	2.3	2.6	3.2	3.8	4.5
Net Margin (%)	18.3	17.9	18.4	18.9	19.0
Net Debt/(Cash) to Equity (%)	-44.7	-51.2	-62.0	-57.6	-59.3
ROE (%)	26.3	25.4	25.2	27.5

Stock Data

GICS Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Bloomberg Ticker: 2020 HK
Shares Issued (m): 2,684.5
Market Cap (HK$m): 81,608.6
Market Cap (US$m): 10,429.4
3-Month Avg Daily Turnover (US$m): 18.8

Price Performance

Period	Performance (%)
1 Month	12.4
3 Months	33.0
6 Months	29.0
1 Year	42.3
YTD	31.8

Shareholder Information

Anta International: 51.3%
FY17 NAV/Share (Rmb): 5.31
FY17 Net Debt/Share (Rmb): 3.29

Peer Comparison (K12 Private School)

Company	Ticker	Rec	Price @ 6 Sep 17 (US$)	Target Price (US$)	Market Cap (US$m)	PE (2016)	PE (2017F)	PE (2018F)	3-yr CAGR (%)	PEG (2018F)	ROE (%)	P/B (x)	Net Gearing (%)
New Oriental	EDU US	BUY	80.92	99.00	12,759	43.4	34.6	25.9	29.4	0.8	17.8	7.6	net cash
China Maple Leaf Edu	1317 HK	BUY	6.90	8.00	1,216	34.2	27.2	22.1	25.0	0.8	16.0	4.6	net cash
TAL Education	TAL US	BUY	30.70	30.50	15,381	113.5	74.0	49.6	48.8	1.0	21.6	3.9	net cash
Bright Scholar	BEDU US	NR	18.09	n.a	2,121	123.0	73.5	40.4	66.5	0.6	48.6	9.4	net cash
Yu Hua Education	6169 HK	NR	3.29	n.a	1,261	27.1	25.3	18.9	19.5	1.0	35.4	4.4	1.1
Wisdom Education	6068 HK	NR	3.70	n.a	964	31.0	25.9	19.6	24.8	0.8	20.5	4.4	60.7

Investment Recommendation

Anta Sports: Maintain BUY, Target: HK$35.00
Education Sector: Maintain OVERWEIGHT, with New Oriental, China Maple Leaf, and TAL Education as top picks.
Overall Valuation: Anta is currently trading at 22x 2017F PE, which is above domestic peers' average but below global sportswear players' 29x 2017F PE. It is considered a sector top pick due to its leading position and growth momentum.

Summary

This document highlights strong performance in the education sector in China, driven by improved results, inclusion in the Hang Seng Index, and the amended law. Anta Sports is also recommended as a BUY, with a focus on its growth in the sportswear sector and potential M&A opportunities. Other markets such as Indonesia and Malaysia show positive outlooks for specific companies. Key risks include policy changes and teacher recruitment challenges. The document also provides detailed financials and valuation metrics for Anta Sports and education sector players.

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