20250710-国泰期货-China_Monthly_Steel_Demand_Tracker_Rally_not_by_Reality_17页_2mb

报告摘要

Lagging Demand: Household leverage rate growth slowed since 2020-21, constraining real living demand in urbanization.
Price & Sales Dynamics: New home sales YoY growth narrowed (70% RHS), existing homes also slowing; price stabilization observed.
City Tier Effect: Transactions in 1st/2nd-tier cities drove volume recovery in 30 key cities (EOY2024 levels).
Inventory & Starts: Housing completions outpacing 3Q2024 YoY growth, new starts persistent decline.

Policy Impacts: Steel-intensive goods like white appliances (TVs, washing machines) benefit from consumption stimulus ("以旧换新").
Auto Industry: Auto production/sales alignment with export orders; US demand slowdown affecting export.
Machinery/Excavators: Excavator sales YoY growth lagging; government bond-driven infrastructure investment expected 6M ahead.

Government Spending: Local govt funds/YT special bonds drove transport & community spending; rebar demand tied to public expenditure.
Steel Exports: Export share halved YoY due to US tariffs; competitiveness relies on price (FOB China remained strong).

Demand Drivers: Residential demand stabilizing, policy support for equipment upgrade + manufacturing output.
Challenges: Speculative demand waning; 3-tier cities bear inventory pressure.
Risk: Sector divergence between Northern & Southern China (i.e., cold/heat rolled spread widening).

Analysis based on NBS, Wind data; focus on futures trading, not financial advice.
Assumes reader is a professional investor aligned with market regulations.
Market data subject to real-time updates, risks not guaranteed mitigated.