2025-06-10-花旗集团-博柏利集团（BRBY）_博柏利集团（BRBY.L）_随着转型执行持续推进_业绩预期逐步兑现——重申买入评级_14页_645kb

Burberry Group PLC (BRBY.L) Analysis Summary

• Key Recommendation: Citi reaffirms "Buy" with a target price of £12.50, up from £9.25, due to earnings upgrades and a robust turnaround plan under new CEO Joshua Schulman.
• Financial Overview: Revenue is expected to decline moderately in FY25-E due to wholesale slowdown and European store rationalization, but recover to £2.74bn by 2028, driven by retail LFL growth (+2% to +7% YoY). Profit before tax is projected to improve, with EBIT up by 8-6% in FY26-E and EPS upgrades through 2028.
• Valuation Metrics: Current price at £10.76, target price £12.50 implies a CY27E P/E of ~19x, reflecting DCF model assumptions; other ratios include EV/EBITDA of 4.6x and P/E of 15.2x for 2028.
• Investment Rationale: Positive outlook from CEO changes, strategic rebalancing (e.g., refocusing on outerwear), and execution of the "Burberry Forward" plan. Long-term potential exceeds near-term risks despite tough luxury market comps.
• Key Risks: Economic volatility in luxury goods demand, high dependency on Chinese market (~35% revenue exposure), currency fluctuations, tourism-related sales volatility, and competitive pressures in the apparel sector.